Research notes

We have reviewed our forecasts ahead of ELD’s FY26 result on 16 November. We lower our FY26 underlying EBIT forecast by 5.2% to A$186.8m (Visible Alpha consensus A$188m) for dry conditions at the start of the 2H26, southern QLD and northern NSW remaining dry, lower than expected 2H26 ag chem prices, higher Corporate Services costs (including returning short-term incentives (STIs)) and Systems Modernisation (SysMod) benefits shifting into FY27. >Our FY27 and FY28 NPAT forecasts fall 12.2% and 14.3% as ELD cycles difficult comps and a smaller summer crop, and higher interest rates lift our net interest expense. Our target price falls to A$7.20 (from A$7.90) and we move to ACCUMULATE (from BUY). >The key for the result is the new CEO’s first take on the cost base, capital allocation, timing of SysMod benefits and the drivers of FY27 earnings growth.

Cape Flattery Silica Mines (CFSM), wholly-owned by Mitsubishi Corporation, has produced high-grade silica sand for over 50 years, now the raw material for glass for solar panels, and for microprocessors. CFSM’s production of ~3Mtpy is exported by a shiploader with 8.4Mtpy capacity. A major offtaker is Sibelco Group. >The Northern Silica Project (NSP) covering ~50% of DRX’s resources is a joint venture between DRX (73.2%) and Sibelco Group (26.8%). A Preliminary Feasibility Study (PFS), based on the NSP resource to JORC Code (2012) standards of 301.5Mt at +99.2% SiO2 evaluated an A$444m development producing 3Mtpy exported using existing marine infrastructure. >Continuing to meet environmental, regulatory and community standards and expectations, and securing a multi-party user agreement for marine infrastructure are critical to develop the NSP. Completing the definitive feasibility study (DFS), making and funding the final investment decision (FID), and construction on time and budget all carry risk. The efficiency of the production ramp-up, and the level of operational costs are critical to value, as is the received commodity price. >We initiate research coverage with a SPECULATIVE BUY rating and A$0.05 target price.

We initiate coverage of Horizon Gold (ASX: HRN) with a BUY rating and a 12-month target price of A$3.03 per share. >HRN’s flagship Gum Creek Gold Project is a simple, de-risked, free-milling open-pit development with robust DFS economics, a defined pathway to first gold and substantial resource upside beyond the current mine plan. >With the stock trading at a meaningful discount to our valuation and developer peers, we see a strong re-rating opportunity as Gum Creek advances toward first gold, targeted for 2H CY28.

We make c.2% downgrades to cash EPS forecasts ahead of the FY26 result, largely related to balance sheet growth (moderated). >Minor increase to DCF-based target price, now $35.67/sh. >TRIM retained, given potential TSR at current prices of c.-9%.

TOR has completed a A$25m institutional placement at A$0.19ps, taking pro-forma cash to ~A$31m and funding an expanded exploration push across its >1,000km² Ritz Gold Project. >The raise removes the balance sheet overhang that we think has capped the share price despite consistently strong drill results. With funding secured, a high-quality 351koz (@ 3.1g/t Au) resource and a steady flow of growth-orientated drilling ahead, we see an attractive entry point. >We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating with a target price of A$0.63 per share (previously A$0.68).

ACE has secured a new territory-wide traffic enforcement contract with the ACT Government, worth ~A$63m over an initial 5-year term (up to ~A$210m including 2x 5-year extension options), representing ACE’s largest Total Contract Value (TCV) win to date. >With the staged rollout commencing mid-2027, the contract will largely contribute into FY28+. We lift our FY28F and FY29F revenue and margin forecasts to capture upside from ACE’s contract award, which increases our EBITDA forecasts by ~16% in each year. We see further catalysts ahead for ACE both in Australia and the US. We reaffirm our SPECULATIVE BUY rating with a A$2.10 price target.

We make minor updates to FY26-27 forecasts ahead of the FY26 result, largely related to balance sheet growth (moderated). >Target price unchanged at $31.67/sh. >TRIM retained, given potential TSR at current prices of c.-9%.

MIN delivered a strong 1Q27 result, with record volumes across Mining Services, Onslow and Wodgina, and costs at or below forecasts at most sites. FY27 guidance was maintained across all divisions. >Net debt was -5% qoq to A$4.1bn and is expected to decline further in 1H27 post the receipt of proceeds from its lithium sell-down to POSCO. >BUY maintained with a lower A$61ps target price (from A$65ps).

MFG has hosted its AGM and given a market update. >We read this as a softer market update overall. 1Q27 trading was subdued, with weakness in Financial Markets and Investment Management. Positively, Corporate Finance remains strong, and the MFG/Barrenjoey integration is running well ahead of schedule, with pre-tax synergies upgraded to A$15m p.a. (from A$6m). >We reduce our FY27F/FY28F EPS by 5%-8% reflecting softer trading conditions in Financial Markets in 1Q27 and higher near term costs associated with the NZ business build out. Our PT falls to A$8.66 (previously A$10.25). >Move to BUY rating, with >20% TSR upside.

A solid 3Q26 result, with EBITDA, NPAT and FCF ahead of consensus and FY26 cost guidance improved. >Capital returns continue to run ahead of our expectations, with US$1.9bn returned since the last call. >We lift our cost and capex assumptions, reducing our target price 9% to A$177ps. Move to ACCUMULATE (from BUY).