Research notes

Regis Resources (RRL) will merge with Vault Minerals (VAU), creating a +700kozpa gold producer with a diversified Tier-1 asset base. The deal delivers value drivers for each side: RRL addresses perceived mine life weakness and embeds a longer-dated production growth profile, while VAU benefits from near-term free cash flow uplift and a step-change in scale, supporting potential index inclusion and re-rating potential. We see a clear pathway to re-rating through improved cost of capital, enhanced index inclusion and sustained free cash flow generation. We maintain our BUY rating, price target A$10.07 noting our forecasts remain unchanged until the scheme of arrangement has been approved by VAU shareholders.

Strong volume momentum but earnings leverage dissipated with margin compression and credit risk pressures. FY27-28F EPS/DPS downgraded 4-5% on 2% lower revenue and 1% higher cost base. FY28F EPS/DPS unchanged. Target price down c.3% to $33.07. We moderate from SELL to TRIM, given potential TSR of c.-8% at current prices.

Surprisingly, FLT has maintained its FY26 earnings guidance. It noted that the conflict is creating near-term uncertainty and temporarily disrupting international travel patterns. It is having a more significant impact on Leisure (April profit was down ~A$10m on the pcp). While the reiteration of guidance was better than feared, our concern is that following its key trading period (May-June), FLT will likely need to revise guidance as we expect leisure demand will remain weak. If it wasn't for this conflict, FLT would have had a great year given its results for the first nine months were strong. We have made material revisions to our forecasts and now sit well below guidance. We assume that the conflict and a subdued consumer environment continue to impact the 1H27. We are buyers of FLT post the earnings downgrade given the company is worth materially more than the current share price. We know from past economic and geopolitical events, that after a downturn, travel demand rebounds.

RMS recorded gold production of 38.1koz at an AISC of A$2,211/oz, down on 2Q26 primarily due to a planned 6-day mill shutdown and weather impacts from Cyclone Narelle. Strong operating cash flow of A$171.3m with underlying FCF of A$101.9m after A$51.2m growth capex and A$26.4m exploration investment. Cash & bullion decreased to A$606.5m (Dec-25: A$694.3m), following A$110.2m in share buybacks (44% of the A$250m buyback allocation). We forecast FY26 production within guided midrange of 192.1koz; AISC guidance revised to A$1,900-2,050/oz driven by Dalgaranga commercial production reclassification (~A$100/oz), diesel (~A$35/oz) and royalties (~A$40/oz). We maintain our BUY rating, with a price target of $6.10ps (previously A$6.21).

AX1 has provided a soft trading update for 2H26, revising guidance lower and disclosed an ASIC insider trading investigation. The trading update for AX1 has materially softened since the update in February, with the escalations in the Middle East resulting in higher fuel prices and lower consumer confidence which in turn has impacted sales and margins. 2H26 EBIT guidance has been lowered to $23-28m (from $30-35m). We have lowered our EBIT by 9%/6% respectively in FY26/27. Our valuation lowers to $1.00, which we apply a 25% discount to derive a target price of $0.75. This reflects the weakening consumer backdrop, as well as overhang from ASIC investigation. We maintain our BUY recommendation.

UNI provided a strong trading update for YTD performance, with group sales for the first 43 weeks of FY26 up 14.0%. FY26 guidance was provided for sales of $368m to $375m representing +11.5% growth on the pcp at the midpoint and EBITA is expected to be $61.5m to $64.5m, representing +15.4% growth on the pcp at the midpoint. We have made minor changes to earnings (~1%) in FY26/27. Our valuation lowers to $9.50 (from $9.60) driven by earnings changes. We retain our BUY recommendation.

SIG has provided a solid trading update to 30 April (domestic) and to 31 March (international), noting continuing GLP-1s tailwinds. SIG continues its international expansion with entry into the UK market and expanding distribution capacity in New Zealand. We have made minor upgrades to forecasts however a higher risk-free rate sees our valuation reduce modestly to A$3.30 (was $3.36). Recent share price strength sees us move to an ACCUMULATE (from BUY) recommendation.

PXA has delivered a strong 3Q26 performance update, with Australian Exchange volumes up 7.3% on the pcp and Group Core NPAT now anticipated at the top end of the FY26 guidance range. We marginally lower our PXA FY26F/FY27 EPS by ~3% on a broad review of our earnings assumptions. Our PT is altered to A$14.23 (from A$14.31). We maintain our ACCUMULATE recommendation with >10% upside to our PT.

Tesla designs, develops, manufactures and sells fully electric vehicles; energy generation and storage systems; and offers related services around these products. The group operates under two reportable segments: (1) Automotive; and (2) Energy generation and storage. Within Automotive, Tesla manufactures five consumer vehicles and in 2022 began early production and deliveries of a commercial electric vehicle, the Tesla Semi. Tesla has product plans to launch a lower priced point vehicle and develop an autonomous Tesla ride-hailing network. Tesla continues to leverage developments in its proprietary Full Self-Driving (FSD) capability, battery cell and other technologies (namely robotics). The energy generation and storage segment includes the design, manufacture, installation, sales and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products. Tesla’s stated mission is to ‘accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy’.

1H26 earnings were a mixed bag and a touch below expectations. FY26-28F EPS adjusted +/-2%. DPS held flat across FY26-27F. Target price lifted 4% to $36.10/sh. Rating lifted from SELL to TRIM, given total potential return of -4% at current prices.