Research notes

TPG’s 1H26 results and reiteration of full-year guidance were largely in line with expectations. For us the highlights were: a clean and easily digestible set of accounts that sets the path for growth; double-digit growth in FCF to equity; and an 11% YoY increase in the dividend to 10cps, which is now 25% franked. We make immaterial forecast changes, retaining our $4 target price and our Accumulate recommendation.

AX1 reported FY26 EBIT down 25% to $82.6m (excluding $48.6m non-cash goodwill impairment), which was broadly in line with expectations and guidance. Sales deteriorated through the year, LFL sales down 0.5% (1H: +0.9%, 2H: -2.0%). Sports Direct rollout continues, 4 stores currently trading and a further 4 expected to open before December. Other performance sports related banners continue to grow (TAF, Saucony, Merrell, Hoka) along with vertical brands (NL and SR). Our EBIT forecasts remain broadly unchanged in FY27, and down 2% in FY28. We have moved to an ACCUMULATE rating with a $0.77 price target.

Despite the cost pressures associated with the conflict in the Middle East, ING delivered its FY26 EBITDA guidance, albeit at the lower end of its range. ING has now dealt with its excess inventory levels, core poultry volumes are back in growth, selling prices are higher and normal production settings and improved network efficiency resulted in a much stronger 2H26 vs 1H26. While leverage was too high, ING has a clear strategy to reduce it over coming years. FY27 guidance disappointed with challenges around materially higher feed costs, inflationary cost pressures associated with the Middle East conflict and declining Wholesale prices. We have made significant downgrades to our forecasts. While ING is materially undervalued based on its more normalised earnings, while headwinds remain and will impact FY27, we move to a Hold rating. The key upside risk is corporate activity. We note speculation continue to surround the company.

Underlying EBITDA of A$85.0m (+28.7%) was in line with our forecast and guidance; statutory NPAT of A$40.6m beat our A$36.8m. FY27 EBITDA guidance for 6.7-6.9% of network sales is at-to-above consensus, and the first seven weeks of comp sales are high-single digit. 14.4cps special dividend and a further A$100m buyback, reflects balance sheet strength (net cash) and the Board’s confidence in the outlook. We upgrade our price target to A$31.00. Given the share price run, we move to ACCUMULATE. We maintain our conviction and would buy on weakness.

FY26 PBT of A$14.5m was in line with guidance (A$12-15m) and -35.0% yoy. The result comprised flat revenue (+0.3% yoy; 2H -3.8%), minor gross margin expansion (+20bps) and weaker underlying overhead control (opex/sales +70bps). PWR clearly has strong asset backing (NTA A$1.48ps) and is pursuing growth in an evolving industry backdrop. However, our confidence in the earnings outlook is low given the depressed margins (2H ROS ~0.2%), industry and consumer headwinds and ongoing underperformance versus listed peers. Hold maintained.

While EQT’s takeover proposal is live, we expect CWY’s share price will be driven by probability of the transaction proceeding, likelihood of a counter-bidder emerging, and time to completion. EQT has commenced up to nine weeks of exclusive due diligence and negotiation of a scheme implementation deed to agree a binding transaction. There is a chance FY26 could be the last result CWY delivers as an ASX-listed company. Target price set at $2.95/sh based on the offer price less 17.5 cps forecast cash dividends prior to completion. Potential TSR at current prices is c.20%. If the offer does not complete, our target would revert to our DCF of $2.69/sh.

PWH delivered a strong FY26 result that was above expectations. The outlook remains positive with continued momentum expected in Aerospace & Defence (A&D) and a return to growth in the OEM segment. Reflecting management’s confidence in the A&D outlook, PWH has announced plans to establish a new manufacturing facility in Poland to capitalise on opportunities in Europe. The new facility is due to commence production in FY27. We make minimal changes to FY27 earnings forecasts. Our target price increases to $12.40 (from $11.15), reflecting strong operational performance from the new Australian manufacturing facility and an expanding pipeline of growth opportunities. However, with a 12-month forecast TSR of 3%, we move our rating to HOLD (from ACCUMULATE). While we continue to view PWH as a high-quality business that is well positioned for its next phase of growth, the stock is now trading on 52.8x FY27F PE. As a result, we would prefer to wait for a more attractive entry point before adopting a more positive stance.

RIC’s FY26 result was stronger than expected with IPF materially exceeding expectations, however its other business units fell slightly short. Strong cashflow was the other highlight. RIC is targeting growth from each business unit in FY27. RIC’s FY26-28 Growth Plan is on track and should underpin solid earnings growth over the forecast period. Higher D&A and net interest has seen us revise our forecasts. We remain positive on the group’s future prospects and maintain an ACCUMULATE rating with a new A$3.12 price target.

IPH’s FY26 result was broadly in line with market expectations, reporting like-for-like (LFL) revenue and NPATA growth at the group level. Whilst Canada and Asia showed topline growth, ANZ remains impacted by lower US PCT filings. IPH’s valuation remains undemanding in our view (i.e. <8x FY27F PE), however we note investor patience is still required given the delivery of organic growth (and the return of key US PCTs) looks to be the catalyst for a sustained re-rating. We maintain our BUY recommendation.

Operating earnings growth driven by inflation, new assets and cost-out. Long-term capital management means earnings growth does not convert into DPS growth. Forecast EBITDA upgrades from cost-outperformance. Target price $8.66/sh. TRIM retained, with potential TSR of -8%. APA has an attractive cash yield of 5.9% at current prices on FY27 DPS guidance, but share price downside risk is material.