Research notes

SHAPE delivered another year of strong earnings growth for FY26. Revenue of $1,239m (+30% vs pcp), EBITDA of $50.1m (+53.1% vs pcp) and NPAT of $31.7m (+50.3% vs pcp) all came in modestly ahead of our forecasts and at the top end of management’s guidance. The group enters FY27 with a solid $628m backlog and a $4.8bn pipeline, which will support near-term growth. Pleasingly, the growth has continued to come from broadening end-sector exposure. We note FY27 will also benefit from the inclusion of the APS acquisition and a full-year contribution from Arden. We retain our BUY recommendation. We make minimal changes to our near-term NPAT forecasts (<2%); however, we revise our price target to $8.11 per share as we introduce a PER-based valuation weighted equally alongside our DCF.

An in-line FY26 result, with EVN declaring a final dividend of 21cps (vs MorgansF 18cps/consensus 23cps) after increasing its dividend payout policy to 60% of group cash flow (from 50%). FY27 group-level guidance was largely in line, with consensus towards the top end of copper guidance and the bottom end of capex guidance. Move to a HOLD rating (previously BUY) with a A$14.40ps target price.

With guidance largely qualitative, we believe there is every reason earnings growth can continue, as SEQ demand remains largely unabated, Construction Materials (CM) earnings benefit from the expanding plant network, and further pultrusion lines are added to the CFT division. Input costs are likely to drag in FY27, however topline growth should offset this, seeing our EPS grow at c.10% (FY27), and 16% in FY28. The FY26 result beat both prior guidance and our expectations, with the key CM and CFT divisions printing strong EBIT growth (vs pcp). The stock is trading at 19x FY27, and c.16x FY28 which is in line with domestic and offshore peers, whilst providing superior growth over the next three years, add in potential Olympics wins in FY27/28 and we see scope for the stock to re-rate. On this basis we reiterate our Buy recommendation with a $5.25/sh price target.

VVA delivered a strong FY26 result, which was slightly ahead of guidance. VVA focused on greater utilisation of existing facilities, rather than opening greenfield sites, lifting average members per club to a record 1,351. Utilisation was above 80% and EBITDA margins expanded 50bps to 47.4%. The board declared a maiden dividend of 3.0cps. We have increased NPAT by 2%/8% respectively in FY27/28. Our valuation increases to $2.27 (from $2.00). We maintain our BUY recommendation.

FY26 results were mixed, with revenue and underlying EBITDA broadly in line, but underlying EBIT 5% below consensus and at the bottom of guidance, reflecting still-thin Pathology margins. Encouragingly, Pathology EBIT margin improved materially in 2H, while labour costs fell 2.9% and group cost growth was contained. Agilex was again a clear positive, with revenue and earnings growth ahead of expectations. While FY27 EBIT guidance of A$39.7m is broadly in line with expectations, the T27 target for mid-to-high single-digit EBIT margins was extended by c18 months to Dec-28, leaving us cautious on the pace and sustainability of earnings leverage. We adjust FY27-28 estimates, with our target price increasing to A$0.43. HOLD

3Q26 cash profit growth trailed 2H26 consensus expectations, driven by slower revenue growth (particularly the relatively higher quality net interest income). No change to FY26F EPS, but FY27/28F moderated on lower net interest income growth outlook. DCF valuation declines -3% to $35.19/sh. TRIM retained. Potential TSR c.-5% at current prices (including c.4.4% yield).

AEL posted solid underlying earnings of A$45m, up from A$9m a year earlier, with the company continuing to deliver operationally. The market’s appetite for exploration in the sector remains depressed, but AEL stated that post delivering ECSP growth, it plans to target cash returns to shareholders. We maintain a BUY rating with a A$2.90 target price (previously A$3.05).

MME’s FY26 result was largely pre-released. The business achieved gross revenue of ~A$249m, on a gross loan book of ~A$2.1bn. Momentum in originations growth (+34% to A$1.2bn) and a stronger exit RNIM (> 3.5%) augurs well for FY27, and we continue to expect MME to maintain a balance between profitability and growth as it seeks to benefit from scale. Our price target remains unchanged at A$0.21 and we maintain our Speculative Buy recommendation.

FY26 result was mixed, with underlying NPAT of A$322m, 6% above our forecast, despite revenue of A$2,348m being broadly in line. The result benefited from a stronger 2H, particularly Services and cochlear implant (CI) volumes, although margins remained under pressure. Notably, Nexa adoption has been solid, capturing >95% of developed-market (DM) implants, but has yet to translate into an acceleration in underlying market growth. FY27 NPAT guidance of A$330-350m implies only modest growth and not yet a material earnings inflection. We adjusted FY27-28 estimates modestly, with our target price increasing to A$138.42 on multiple roll-forward. HOLD.

BRG delivered A$207m EBIT (+1% yoy) in line with guidance, in what was an exceptionally challenging year as the group navigated a volatile tariff backdrop and ongoing supply chain shocks via geopolitical conflicts. Revenue growth was slightly below expectations (~2%), as FX headwinds in the 2H (US ~10%; EMEA ~5%) detracted from the topline. Growth on a constant currency (cc) basis remains solid (+10%), and ongoing premiumisation tailwinds, and coffee (up double digits), have continued into FY27. We view BRG as having emerged from this transitional year as a better business, with a robust outlook. New market expansion continues to accelerate (+74% yoy), the NPD pipeline is strong and new initiatives (Best Buy) are driving a material step-change in sell out performance. We expect FY27 forecasts may prove conservative, with BRG able to return to a sustainable level of growth in FY27. We move to an ACCUMULATE (from BUY) purely on a valuation basis.