Research notes

3Q25 production and sales slightly missed expectations, on WA outages and Cooper flood impact and weaker oil-linked LNG pricing. FY25 production guidance trimmed to 89-91mmboe. After the ADNOC fallout, Santos is a bruised name, but this is at odds with core asset reliability and growth delivery visibility, creating an opportunity. Heavily discounted post-ADNOC, valuation risk-reward now skews to the upside. We upgrade to Accumulate (from Trim), with a revised A$6.80 target price.

ARX has reported a solid 2Q26 cashflow report which is now the fourth consecutive quarter of positive operating cashflow. Importantly the company has reconfirmed its FY26 guidance. We are comfortable sitting at the top end of guidance. The next key catalyst will be the outcome of the proposed changes to the US Medicare reimbursement in relation to skin substitutes, expected in November. If changes are confirmed this could lead to accelerated uptake of SymphonyTM. We have made no changes to forecasts, although after rolling our valuation forward the DCF valuation has increased to A$0.80 (was $0.77). We have moved our recommendation to ACCUMMULATE (from SPECULATIVE BUY) with 13.5% upside to our target price.

EVN delivered another solid quarter of cash flow generation despite a weaker quarter of production compared to expectations. Mungari is expected to reach commercial production this month (Oct-25). FY26 guidance reiterated, and EVN has now fully repaid all term debt and gearing is down to 11% (from 15%). Maintain TRIM rating with a A$10.00ps TP (previously A$10.20ps).

JIN has taken its first step into the international B2C prize draw space, acquiring UK-based Dream Car Giveaways (DCG), a leading digital competition platform, for A$109.9m (~6.5x LTM EBITDA). The acquisition bridges the potential earnings gap from non-TLC revenue streams and accelerates JIN’s strategic shift from slower-growing international B2B operations toward higher-margin B2C opportunities. DCG provides JIN with immediate scale and profitability in a large, underpenetrated UK prize market. While FY26 guidance remains unchanged, DCG is expected to contribute A$14.3-14.9m in underlying EBITDA in FY26, representing 20-25% growth (MorgansF: A$14.4m). After incorporating DCG into our model; adding the recently announced RSL Art Union SaaS contract; and moderating Lottery Retailing growth assumptions, we upgrade JIN to a Buy recommendation and lift our 12-month price target to $15.90 (from $12.90).

We attended the first investor briefing by ANZ’s new CEO Nuno Matos updating the market on strategy and providing short and medium term financial targets. If ANZ achieves its FY28/30 ROTE targets the upside to earnings estimates and valuation is substantial. However, we are doubtful that the ROTE target can be achieved as it requires revenue growth across FY28-30 far above our forecasts. We make material forecast upgrades from FY26F as we back management’s cost-out plan. Revenue forecasts are effectively unchanged. Target price lifted 14% to $32.72/sh. TRIM retained given share price strength. Next event is FY25 result on 10 November.

BOQ delivered 2H25 cash earnings towards the top half of its guidance range (+9% growth vs 1H25), providing a mild beat of expectations mainly on revenue growth. 2H25 DPS of 20 cps also beat consensus. We have downgraded FY26F earnings due to the slippage in the targeted timing of both the full $250m productivity cost-out and recovery in home lending volumes. Rating revised to HOLD. Target price $6.87/sh (lifted mainly due to update to DCF discount rate). Forecast cash yield c.5.1%.

RPL continues to take advantage of resurgent small cap and resource markets, which has seen Sep-25 (3QCY25) FUM increase 13.1% (QoQ) to $20.0Bn. The standout performance was in Hedge Fund strategies, where investment performance delivered +$1.4bn (+17%) for the quarter. This strong investment performance has also improved the outlook for 2HCY25 performance fees, which are expected to be materially above the top end of consensus. Positive flows and investment performance across all strategies further underlies the diversity of RPL’s offering, suggesting that performance fees will likely prove more persistent than current investor expectations suggest. Combined with persistent investment performance we remain confident in RPL’s capacity to continue growing FUM and it is on this basis we retain our BUY rating and $4.00/sh price target.

Operational delivery was again solid, but RIO is relying on a stellar 4Q just to achieve the low end of Pilbara shipments guidance. Copper again was the standout, driving group momentum and sentiment. Valuation starting to stretch moving beyond a positive TSR, prompting TRIM rating.

BBN has provided a trading update which was broadly in line with expectations, with comp sales YTD up 2.2%. FY26 guidance was reiterated for pro forma NPAT of $17-20m. Earnings will be skewed to the 2H driven by stronger sales growth post store refurbishments and incremental margin improvement. The three newly refurbished stores continue to trade well, with an average 30% sales uplift YTD, in line with the 28% reported at the time of the FY result. This is above the target range of 15-25%, however we still think it is early days. Whilst we acknowledge the significant leverage if the business can return to 10% EBITDA margins, we believe this relies on solid execution, and think this is reflected in current valuation. Given the share price strength, we retain our TRIM recommendation.

The acquisition of TAMS on a cheap multiple is materially EPS accretive and is on strategy, improving diversification and increasing exposure to the government’s significant maritime defence spend over the next decade. In our view, the added scale, diversity and strong forecast EPS growth over FY26 (+25%) and FY27 (+16%), should ensure the stock continues to re-rate. Moreover, the balance sheet remains conservative meaning SRG can continue to supplement organic growth with further acquisitions. Our target price rises to $3.00 from $2.10.