Research notes

The tungsten market has split, with Chinese restrictions leading to price premiums at Rotterdam and Baltimore, where the price for ammonium paratungstate (APT) has lifted from sub-US$40,000/t in 2024/25 to currently US$290,000/t. EQR reported relatively weak production at both its mines, with 28,315 metric tonne units (mtu) produced in the June 2026 quarter, and full year production of 118,945mtu (1,169.4t). Our expectation is for close to 300,000mtu in FY2027. EQR has announced that it will seek to list on the NASDAQ or NYSE. Almonty Industries (NASDAQ:ALM), also listed on the ASX, and Frankfurt, and with production aspirations comparable with EQR, has a market capitalisation of US$4.3 billion at US$13.35ps, ~4 times EQR’s Market Cap.

VYS is acquiring water management business Welltech for $60m, including deferred consideration, at ~5x FY26 EBIT or ~6x FY27F EBIT. The acquisition appears strategically sound as it materially increases the annuity-style earnings base, with high returns, and diversifies earnings away from the legacy hydrogeological drilling business. We lift our FY27/FY28 EPS forecasts by +13%/+16%. Moreover, positive water pricing indications in the Pilbara lead us to increase our assumed price of water for VAM to $5.50/kL, from $4/kL. Our target price rises to $1.40 (from $1.10).

SUN’s FY26 NPAT of A$1.04bn came in marginally ahead (+1.5%) of consensus (A$1.02bn), noting several key result items had already been pre-released. The key positives from the result, in our view, were the additional capital returns announced, the flagged potential margin upside stemming from SUN's new reinsurance structure; and catastrophe budget resilience. The main negative was arguably the flat unit growth in consumer home and motor insurance during 2H26. We make relatively minor adjustments to SUN FY27F/FY28F EPS of -3% respectively, mainly on reduced insurance trading ratio assumptions. Our PT rises to A$20 (from $18.89) with our earnings changes offset by a valuation roll-forward. We believe SUN's management has executed well in recent years, successfully steering the company's strategy as a pure play general insurer. However, with the upside to our price target more limited (<10%) we maintain our HOLD recommendation.

CBA delivered a beat (albeit low quality) of consensus expectations. Forecast changes are minimal. Target price lifted to $120.47. SELL retained, given potential TSR of -27% (including 3.0% cash yield) at current elevated prices and trading multiples.

Seek’s (SEK) FY26 result was largely per guidance and broadly in line with expectations. However, softer outlook commentary around APAC volumes (largely macro driven) and FY27 guidance being meaningfully under consensus led to the stock trading lower on result day. Cost control, operating leverage and solid yield growth were the key positives, in our view. We make several assumption changes and integrate FY27 guidance into our numbers (details overleaf). Our DCF-derived price target is lowered to A$19.90.

The Walt Disney Co. operates as a global entertainment company. It owns and operates television and radio production, distribution and broadcasting stations, direct-to-consumer (DTC) services, amusement parks, cruise lines and hotels. It operates through the following business lines: Disney Entertainment, ESPN, and Disney Parks, Experiences, and Products. The company was founded by Walter Elias Disney on 16 October 1923 and is headquartered in Burbank, California.

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is an American multinational integrated energy company headquartered in Spring, Texas. ExxonMobil operates across four business segments, Upstream, Energy Products, Chemical Products and Specialty Products, supported by a Low Carbon Solutions business spanning carbon capture, hydrogen and lithium.

KPG delivered 18.9% underlying NPATA growth to A$10.8m for FY26, on revenue up 18.2% to A$159.2m. The group now operates 43 businesses across six countries (Australia, US, Ireland, Hong Kong, India and, new in FY26, a Philippines BPO), with the US contributing ~A$25m or ~15% of revenue. KPG's programmatic acquisition strategy continued, with six acquisitions completed in FY26 adding ~A$18.7m-22.2m of annualised revenue (13.9%-16.5% of FY25 revenue). Group run-rate revenue is now ~A$164.2m. Organic revenue growth was 2.9% (4.5% excluding office consolidations and exiting non-profitable clients). Operating-business underlying EBITDA margin held at 28.4% (FY25: 28.3%), with KPG continuing to target 35%.