Research notes

Debut 1HFY26 results held no material surprises relative to IPO disclosures, and are more strategically important than financially complex. Since listing, EPI has secured a favourable Medicare reimbursement ruling, completed the first US Minder implant and signed nine Tier-1 US centres for DETECT, albeit enrolment remains early (3 patients to date). Cash runway is confirmed through DETECT completion and G1 development into CY28, with execution on enrolment cadence now the key swing factor for sentiment. We make no changes to our FY26-28 forecasts or A$2.33 DCF-based target price. SPECULATIVE BUY rating maintained.

A solid set of earnings and dividend ahead of estimates were not enough to offset new operational issues at Who Dat, Neon delay, moderated share buyback and CFO departure. Underlying EBITDAX of US$389m beat MorgansF (+3%) and consensus (+2%), with a larger U/L NPAT beat driven by lower tax and D&A. KAR flagged a Who Dat riser leak, shutting in 30% of field production. Neon FID has been delayed to 2027 at least. We maintain a HOLD rating, with KAR entering a challenging 1H26.

M7T’s 1H26 result was a soft half as anticipated, with revenue down on lower capital licences and services, but recurring revenue now 85% of group revenue and covering most of the cost base, signaling a higher-quality earnings mix. The positive was the cost base reset is progressing well, with operating expenses down 6% and operating cash flow breakeven in 2Q, leaving the company sufficiently funded with A$18.5m cash and no debt to execute on its strategy. With the commercial and organisational reset largely complete and Flamingo beginning to sell, M7T looks positioned for a cleaner 2H and the potential for ARR to re-accelerate into FY27 as new deals and expansions land. No changes to valuation of A$0.76 and Buy recommendation.

GDG’s 1H26 group underlying NPAT (A$20.1m, +63% on the pcp), was in line with MorgansF and +5% above Visible Alpha consensus (A$19.3m).    We acknowledge the change in divisional reporting made this a messy result, albeit it was more straightforward than we envisaged, and largely as expected across the board. Positive commentary on potential Evidentia mandates dropping this quarter was arguably our key takeaway, and this could provide a catalyst at the 3Q26 update (if management can deliver as promised). We lower our GDG FY26F/FY27F EPS by -1%/-6%. Changes to our forecasts reflect a broad review of our earnings assumptions, and re-modelling per GDG’s new reporting structure. Our PT falls to A$6.66 (previously A$7.97). We believe GDG has a great story, and management has executed well over time. With the stock trading at a >20% discount to our TP, we maintain our Buy call.

ACE delivered a strong and largely as expected 1H26 result with Revenue of $40.3m (+40% YoY) in line with MorgF $39.4m. Adjusted EBITDA of $3.9m (+9% YoY) was supported by the ramp-up of new contracts in NZ and WA. This was reflected in Australian EBITDA growth of 13% to $11.0m, and ACE’s International segment delivering positive EBITDA of +$0.9m, for the first time. FY26 revenue guidance of $83.0m-$87.0m was reaffirmed, with Adjusted EBITDA now expected to be in the range of $7.2m-$8.2m was reaffirmed. ACE is catalyst rich, with line of sight on various opportunities to scale the business domestically and internationally, over the near-to medium term. We retain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating & $2.30/sh PT.

Revenues were already known. Higher costs and FX rates (AUDEUR, AUDUSD) and APRR valuation decay caused our business-as-usual valuation to decline 28 cps to $3.99/share. First-time FY26 DPS guidance of 40 cps implies c.8.1% cash yield at current prices. We estimate the distribution can be sustained at this level until mid-2028 when excess corporate cash reserves are exhausted. Our target price of $4.31/sh assumes potential for IFM corporate activity, albeit this seems less likely as IFM ‘creeps’ its shareholding higher every six months (now c.35%). With potential TSR at current prices of -4%, we downgrade to TRIM.

HLO reported a strong 1H26 result which slightly beat expectations. FY26 EBITDA guidance for 15-30% growth was reiterated. Its forward bookings remain strong. Following the 1H26, we have upgraded our forecasts. Given HLO’s undemanding trading multiples, improved trading conditions and contribution from new accretive acquisitions, we reiterate our BUY rating.

In late December 2025 ATA guided to 1H26 underlying EBITDA of ~$7m and 2H26 underlying EBITDA of $23-24m (FY26 $30-31m). Today’s result was inline with this and the Board reaffirmed guidance for the full year. We make minor forecast changes and upgrade our recommendation to BUY (from ACUM MULATE). Our Target Price remains unchanged at 80cps.

COG’s 1H26 Underlying NPAT to shareholders (A$13.6m) was up +11% on the pcp, but -9% below MorgansE (~A$15m). We saw this as a bit of a mixed result with a strong performance in Salary Packaging offset by some margin pressures in Broking and Aggregation (B&A). Near term, we think additional business simplification (alluded to at this result), and further acquisitions remain the key stock catalysts. We downgrade our COG FY26F/FY27F EPS by -4%-5 respectively. Changes to our numbers reflect softer margin assumptions in B&A, and our price target is reduced to A$2.09 (from A$2.57). Following a recent pullback in COG’s share price, the stock now trades on an undemanding ~11x FY26F PE multiple (pre acquired amortisation). We think this is too cheap given the inherent optionality in the business, and we retain our Buy call (with >20% upside to our valuation).

1H26 was a mixed bag, with a minor bottom-of-the-range EBIT guidance upgrade. Next catalyst is the investor strategy day planned for 21 April. Earnings forecast adjustments are minimal, cashflow downgrades more material. Target price of $3.11/sh unchanged (downgrades offset by valuation roll-forward).