Research notes

Tasmea's FY26 result was strong with EBITA +54% YoY and EPS +27%. Organic EBITA growth accelerated to +18% for the year, implying a 2H run-rate of +25%, while work secured, recurring or tendered has lifted to $1.3bn (from $1.2bn in late June). A fast start to FY27 and increased visibility has driven an EBITA guidance upgrade to $205-210m, which looks conservative against an implied 2H run-rate of ~$210m (including Maxim and JPS). We increase our FY27/28 EBITA and NPATA forecasts by +4-5% and retain ACCUMULATE with a $10.65 target price.

With traffic and toll revenues pre-released, the 1H26 operating and financial performance was broadly in-line with expectations. Forecast changes limited. 12 month target price $4.74/sh, predicated on IFM returning with another takeover bid. HOLD retained at current prices. Potential TSR c.9%, including 7.6% cash yield.

Eureka's FY26 result was a small beat vs our expectations, with underlying EBITDA and underlying pre-tax EPS (U-EPS) both finishing above the top of guidance, with U-EPS having grown 10% (vs pcp). FY27 guidance for U-EPS growth of at least +13% came in above our prior forecasts, reflecting both the cadence of acquisitions and the rollout of additional dwellings. The EGH investment case rests on a structural shortage of affordable rental accommodation, resilient government-backed cashflows, and two scaling growth engines - seniors' rentals and all-age rentals - funded by an accretive acquisition and prefabricated dwelling development pipeline (>800 dwellings). We retain our BUY rating and A$0.85 target price, offering around 33% upside plus a c.2.4% dividend yield.

KAR posted a largely in line 1H26 earnings result, with guidance maintaining the H2 skew that will deliver positive FCF. Advancing Who Dat East, while looking for partners on Brazil exploration, with capital efficiency an increasing priority under current management. After an investment heavy H1, KAR understandably announced an interim dividend at the low end of its 20-40% payout ratio, at AUD 1.2 cents. We maintain a HOLD rating with an updated A$1.73 target price, viewing KAR as trading close to fair value on a TSR basis.

APE delivered a positive 1H26 update: sales +24% yoy (+8% LFL) and Underlying PBT growth of +27% yoy. The result was a ~4% beat on consensus sales and PBT. The result was characterised by ongoing industry relative outperformance across its Canadian and ANZ operations, laying foundations for future growth (NEV leadership; EA123; M&A) and continuing to optimise the portfolio (NZ divestment). The group enters 2H26 with a 25k+ order bank and +4% LFL order write (Aug) that is strengthening across key brands and providing meaningful 2H tailwinds (Toyota). We attribute the negative share price reaction to a more hawkish rate backdrop, overshadowing a good result in tough conditions with a positive operational outlook. BUY maintained with a $26.30 target price.

FY26 underlying NPAT increased 23% and was ahead of expectations, with EBIT growth and positive OCF (ex - Santé). Australia remained the earnings driver, while UK Acute was the standout and Elysium showed a material 2H turnaround. Pleasingly, Australia delivered EBIT growth of 11.2% and 30bp margin expansion despite a 4% headwind from new funding at Joondalup public, supported by activity, acuity, theatre utilisation, PHI indexation and cost control. While we view result quality as encouraging (OCF & ROCE up), FY27 guidance is qualitative, with management only targeting EBIT growth and margin expansion (ex - Santé), leaving the sustainability question open for debate. We adjust FY27-28 earnings, with our price target increasing to A$49.39. Hold.

SIG has posted its FY26 result which was in line with our and consensus forecasts. Highlights included EBIT growth of >20%, Australia CW LFL sales were 13.4% (1H 15.0%; 2H: 11.8%), International CW LFL sales of 12.2%. We note the slight moderation in 2H in Australia was driven by a later start to the cold and flu season and cycling a very strong pcp. SIG is targeting double-digit revenue and earnings growth for FY27. We have reduced our forecast by ~3.5%, which sees our TP reduce to A$3.19 (was A$3.30). The market has marked the shares down 7% post the FY26 results and possible sell down by some of the founders (up to 4.7% of issued capital). We believe the share price fall is overdone and provides us with an opportunity to move our recommendation to BUY (from ACCUMULATE).

WES’s FY26 result was broadly in line with expectations, although trading in early FY27 was slightly softer, with management also flagging higher capex in FY27. Earnings from Bunnings, Kmart Group and Health were largely in line with expectations, while Officeworks was slightly above our forecasts. WesCEF was modestly weaker than anticipated. Management noted that while consumer demand remains resilient, cost-of-living pressures persist and customers continue to be value-conscious. We make minimal changes to FY27-29F group EBIT but decrease underlying NPAT by 1-2% due to higher net interest expense. Despite these changes, our target price rises to $85.00 (from $81.10) as we believe the increased investments WES is making in the near term will drive sustainable growth over the long term. This is particularly evident across its retail businesses (Bunnings, Kmart Group, Officeworks and Priceline), where investment should strengthen customer value propositions in a subdued consumer environment and position the divisions to capture stronger growth when economic conditions improve. ACCUMULATE rating maintained.

AIM's FY26 result was a revenue beat against MorgansF (a slower year on year decline than we had anticipated) while statutory EBITDA was in line with our expectations (higher revenue offset higher costs). Adjusted EBITDA of $2.1m was down 54% YoY on the higher product investment, though 2H26 Adjusted EBITDA of $2.5m was a sharp inflection from the 1H26 loss of $0.4m. Management has said FY27 ARR guidance will be provided at AIM’s AGM on 30 September 2026, so the key stock catalyst remains outstanding. We retain our HOLD rating with a target price of A$0.26 (previously A$0.22).

MIN delivered a strong FY26 result and FY27 guidance. Underlying NPAT was an 8% beat vs expectations and MIN declared a final dividend of 83cps (vs consensus 7.4cps). The stock gave back its early gains post the conference call after MIN flagged copper as a next potential growth pathway which we think unsettled some investors. Move to ACCUMULATE (previously BUY) with a A$71ps target price.