Research notes

As we feared, but even weaker than expected, TWE’s trading update meant that consensus estimates were far too high. Its US performance was particularly disappointing given of all the capital spent in recent years. Gearing is now well above TWE’s target range and will remain high for the next couple of years. While we made large downgrades to our forecasts only two weeks ago following the goodwill write-down, TWE’s new trading update has seen us make another round of material revisions. We stress that earnings uncertainty remains high. It will take time for new management to deliver more acceptable returns and for TWE to rebuild credibility with the market. We maintain a HOLD rating.

Alibaba Group is a Chinese multinational technology company specialising in e-commerce, retail, Internet and technology. The company has 7 main operating segments: China commerce retail, China commerce wholesale, International commerce, Core commerce, Digital Media and Entertainment, Cloud and Other. Across these segments are 32 companies. Alibaba’s primary business is a digital marketplace where consumers and merchants can connect to buy and sell from each other.

COI has agreed to acquire Santos’ 42.86% interest in the Mahalo Gas Project. STO is clearly simplifying its portfolio but also reducing future capex requirements under current balance sheet stretch and oil price exposure. We maintain a Speculative Buy rating and A$0.25 target price, but see a material increase in upside risk being unlocked by this transaction.

We initiate research coverage on Zeotech Limited (ZEO) with a 12-month target price of A$0.15ps and a Speculative Buy rating. ZEO’s flagship Toondoon Project is a high-purity kaolin project in Queensland, with access to Bundaberg Port. The project consists of a Direct Ship Ore (DSO) component, with a larger potential to produce high-reactivity metakaolin for use in low-carbon concrete. Key approvals have been secured, with recently updated project economics reinforcing the pathway toward a Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) in 2026.

Chipotle Mexican Grill is the largest fast-casual restaurant chain in the US with total system sales of US$9.9bn in 2023. Chipotle’s store network is mainly company-owned and not franchised (apart from the Middle East). Chipotle sells burritos, burrito bowls, quesadillas, tacos, and salads made using fresh, high-quality ingredients, with a selling proposition built around competitive prices, high-quality food sourcing, speed of service, and convenience. It had a footprint of nearly 3,440 stores at the end of 2023, heavily indexed to the United States, although it maintains a small presence in Canada, the UK, France, and Germany.

Sunstone Metals (ASX:STM) reports 3.6Moz gold equivalent (AuEq) in Resource to JORC Code (2012) standards at Bramaderos (STM 87.5%), southern Ecuador, a 33% increase. This contains 2.2Moz Au and 490Mlb Cu. A larger 5-13Moz AuEq Exploration Target to JORC Code (2012) standards includes the Limon epithermals, and deeper gold-copper finger porphyries including Copete-Porotillo. El Palmar, northern Ecuador, is 70km along the Toachi Fault Zone from SolGold Plc’s (LSE:SOLG) Cascabel project, containing the Alpala deposit of 2.7 billion tonnes at 0.53g/t AuEq. There are five porphyry copper-gold targets at El Palmar extending from surface with an initial resource to JORC Code (2012) standards of 1.2Moz AuEq (800koz gold, 1.3Moz silver, 176Mlb copper) in one of these. Gold is now trading above US$4,300/oz and copper above US$5.28/lb. Chinese miner Jiangxi Copper Co Ltd has increased its offer for SolGold to £0.28 per share (US$1.13 billion) to acquire the Cascabel copper-gold project. The Hancock Mining-ENAMI joint venture surrounds Cascabel and El Palmar.

H&M Hennes & Mauritz AB is a multinational fashion and design group conglomerate based in Vasteras, Sweden. Its 11 brands include H&M, COS, Weekday, Monki, H&M Home, & Other Stories, Arket, Afound, The Singular Society, Creator Studio and Sellpy. Across these brands, its main operating segment is affordable and sustainable wardrobe essentials, but it also offers fashion pieces and unique designer collaborations, accessories, stationery, homewares, shoes, bags and beauty products. H&M Group operates over 4,300 stores worldwide. 

IMB has acquired two businesses for just $40m from Johnson Control, which together produce $10m EBITDA ( 4x EBITDA ). Each business has sticky revenue (75% recurring) with what looks like a strong customer base. In our view, IMB is a beneficiary of the dynamic whereby conglomerates are selling non-core assets following a realisation that consolidation of HVAC, fire systems and electronic security systems has failed to yield expected synergies. While the company expects the acquisition to be +25-28% EPS accretive, we had assumed no tax was being paid in both FY26 & 27 and slightly lower interest costs. We incorporate the acquisitions and include close to full tax from FY26 onwards (as well as slightly higher interest), which sees EBIT up materially but EPS down in both FY26 and FY27. Target price rises to $1.00 through our DCF and EV/EBITDA valuation methodology.

Navigator Global Investments (NGI) is an alternative asset management firm focused on partnering with leading global alternative managers, with exposure to 11 boutique firms across hedge funds, private markets, structured credit, macro, commodities and derivatives. NGI operates a simple and effective model: it takes minority stakes in high-quality, high-margin alternative managers and supports their growth with capital and strategic services. The model creates a highly diversified earnings base with strong growth potential through adding scale (new partnerships) to the existing platform. NGI has a strategic ambition to double EBITDA over five years, implying ~15% CAGR. We believe the business has the operating structure and expertise, is self-funding, and has a large addressable market for acquisitions to achieve this target. Earnings resilience is a key feature supported by high diversity in its Assets under management (AUM) across asset classes, managers, investment strategies, and investor channels. At ~13x FY26F PE, we see this earnings durability and growth potential as undervalued. We initiate coverage on NGI with a BUY recommendation, with the stock currently trading at an 18% discount to our A$3.45 blended valuation.

Following changes to its Board and with the appointment of a new CEO, we see more stability and focus returning to the PNV business. The 1Q26 trading update sees group sales up 33% and gives us confidence our full-year revenue forecast (up ~17%) is on track. We sit below revenue consensus but in line with EBITDA. We have made no changes to forecasts. However, we have removed our discount to the target price which now sits at A$2.03 (was A$1.69). We have moved our recommendation up to BUY from SPECULAIVE BUY.