Research notes

MVF’s 1H26 result was in line with guidance provided in November, with underlying NPAT down 34% yoy to $10.4m (guidance $10-10.5m). FY26 guidance was re-iterated for underlying NPAT of $20m. During the period, MVF lost significant market share (down 2.5% to 19%), but remains the second largest player in Australia. We have lowered our NPAT forecasts by 4%/7% respectively in FY26/27. Our valuation lowers to $0.87 (from $0.90) driven by earnings revisions. We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation.

VEE’s 1H26 revenue was below management’s guidance range provided in November, but underlying EBITDA was in line. Performance was affected by weaker propulsion and gyro revenue, as well as a decline in defence revenue with ASC orders not received until late in the half. Management said FY26 will be a transition year with costs spent on US defence qualification, the new gyro Mark III and the recently launched VEEM Extreme range expected to yield stronger results in FY27. We adjust FY26/27/28F underlying EBITDA by -68%/-39%/-33%. Our target price declines to $0.80 (from $1.10) and we maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating. While the 1H26 performance was weak, we believe VEE’s outlook remains positive with multiple growth opportunities across defence (eg, HII, Northrop Grumman, Hunter Class Frigate Program), propulsion (VEEM Extreme, Sharrow), and gyros (Mark III). Timing of order flow remains uncertain, which is likely to cause earnings volatility in the near term. However, the long-term earnings potential of these opportunities remains significant.

NUZ has dosed the first patient in the HEALEY ALS Platform Trial, marking the shift from early proof of concept into a potentially pivotal clinical program. This represents a key milestone for the company and sets the stage for a more meaningful period of clinical news flow into 2H CY26 when enrolment is expected to complete. No changes to forecasts and maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating, noting the high risk / high reward proposition.

A comfortable result and well flagged in the recent 2Q26 report. Result soft on legacy roll off, but core testing remains strong with volumes up 113% and Explorer lifting to 55% of revenue. Cost base reset on track with underlying loss improving YoY, leaving MAP well positioned for a cleaner 2H with improving leverage and clearer revenue optics. Minor changes to forecasts and no change to target price of A$0.29 p/s. Retain Speculative Buy recommendation.

CUV delivered a softer result that landed below expectations, with top line underperformance and operational cost growth materially outpacing revenue. The combination of slower revenue growth, heavier opex, FX drag, and margin compression makes for an underwhelming print relative to expectations. While fundamentally cheap with a large cash balance providing valuation support and trading well below historical multiples, the outlook continues to hinge on clinical catalysts and a change in sentiment (strategic direction driven) which we view is unlikely to shift meaningfully in the near term. Minor downgrades due to higher OpEx base and adjustments to WACC. Our target price reduces to A$13 (from A$14) but retain a SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation.

We update our coverage of MM8 to incorporate the recently released Feasibility Study and positive EPBC permitting, outlining integration of the Forrestania processing infrastructure with the 1.2Moz AuEq Ravensthorpe Gold Project. MM8 is now fully funded, supported by a US$50m offtake-linked financing facility with commodity trader Trafigura, removing a key development overhang. We see strong parallels with covered stock ASX.MEK, where leveraging existing processing infrastructure drove a similar scale production profile and translated into outsized shareholder returns through the development phase. We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating, with a price target of A$0.87ps (previously A$0.61ps).

Jumbo Interactive (JIN) reported a solid 1H26 result, with most headline metrics pre-released. While Lottery Retailing was impacted by a softer jackpot cycle, offshore segments delivered encouraging growth and margin expansion. Managed Services continues to build momentum, with Canada EBITDA guidance upgraded and the UK tracking nicely. Underlying SaaS trends remain healthy ex-Lotterywest. Following the update, we believe JIN can delever by FY27F, assuming a normalisation in Australian jackpot activity and continued offshore earnings growth. We have updated our model to reflect upgraded Managed Services and Prize Draw guidance, alongside refreshed FX assumptions. Our underlying EBITDA increases +1%/+5% across FY26-27F. We maintain our BUY recommendation with an unchanged $14.90 target price.

WGN delivered an exceptional set of results, with 1H26 EBIT beating guidance (+9.5%), our expectations (+8.4%) and consensus (+10.6%). Full year guidance was materially upgraded, with the implied 2H26 EBIT of $27-$31m a 32% beat vs prior guidance and consensus, as strong demand continues across construction materials, while CFT poles are on track to triple (vs FY25). The balance sheet is also now net cash, with the business well positioned to execute on its capex plans and capture continued demand for cement/concrete in South-East Queensland, along with CFT demand. This positive view sees us upgrade to a Buy recommendation with a $5.00/sh price target.

WTC’s 1H26 result was a modest beat to MorgF/Consensus with Revenue of US$672m (~2% ahead MorgF/consensus), Underlying EBITDA was US$252.1m (margins of 38%) and Underlying NPATA was US$114m, ~3% ahead of consensus of US$111.0m. FY26 guidance was reiterated, however the next phase of WTC’s Ai-led transformation came as a surprise with the group targeting a material head count reduction over FY26/FY27 as it leans into companywide Ai adoption to drive cost and workflow efficiencies on the path to a return to 50% EBITDA margins. Updating our numbers to reflect WTC’s 1H26 result and FY26 outlook sees our revenue and EBITDA forecasts revised lower by ~1-3% in FY26-FY28F. Our DCF/EV/EBITDA based price target is revised to A$83.60ps (from A$112.50ps), with our BUY rating retained.

IRE delivered a solid FY25 result with underlying EBITDA of A$136.2m, +4.7% ahead of our estimate, and the group’s FY25 guidance range. Divisionally each segment delivered solid EBITDA growth half on half, with APAC Wealth up +24.5%, UK Wealth +46%, and GTMD +8.6%. FY26 Cash EBITDA guidance (underlying EBITDA less capex) was provided at A$116-126m (representing 15-26% growth YoY). IRE flagged that capex for FY26 will remain in line with FY25, which implies further operating leverage is expected. We upgrade our underlying EBITDA forecasts by +5-6%, which sees our price target increase to $10.95 from $10.50. With over 50% implied TSR, we move to a BUY rating from ACCUMULATE.