Research notes

We incorporate the impact of Sydney toll reforms (subject to definitive agreements and various approvals expected in 2HCY26) and 2H26 monthly traffic data into our forecasts and valuation. TCL said the toll reforms were structured to be value neutral and not impact “near term” DPS. We largely agree on value – our target price adjusts -11 cps to $12.63/s albeit this includes actual June quarter CPI lower than we had expected. The near- term DPS impact is mitigated by key reform changes not applying until FY28. In coming years we expect TCL’s EBITDA growth to be constrained by Melbourne weakness while its interest costs (paid and expensed) rise faster than consensus expectations. Our modelling indicates TCL’s DPS in coming years may grow at a similar rate to APA Group (<2%/year). If TCL were to re-rate to APA’s yield then TCL would price in the $12/sh range. TRIM ahead of first-time FY27 DPS guidance.

GDF delivered a strong set of results for FY26, with FFO of 11.1cps reflecting growth of +54% (vs pcp), whilst also beating prior guidance (10cps) and our expectations. The heavy lifting was done by the lending book, as deployed capital tripled on FY25 and loan returns averaged 20% for the period. The property portfolio remains stable, with the key swing factors of Acacia Ridge and Morningside lease-up being conservatively set (MorgansF) for 1H28 and 2H27 respectively. With the stock trading at a 33% discount to NTA and an 8.2% distribution yield (FY27), we see upside to the current share price and reiterate our Buy rating with a $1.30/sh price target.

FY27 guidance in line on production but capex of $280-343m was well above expectations on Constellation construction and stripping ahead of first ore in 3Q27. Elevated near-term Tritton capex funds the development of Constellation and Mallee Bull, underpinning higher-grade mill feed and a path to 30ktpa of copper production by FY30. Maintain BUY with a A$0.55ps target price (previously A$0.53ps).

EDV has provided some preliminary numbers for FY26 with underlying sales, EBIT and NPAT largely in line with expectations. The company has, however, announced $372m ($311m after tax) in one-off costs (both cash and non-cash) relating to the write down of carrying values for assets as well as costs associated with the implementation of its strategy review. Further details on EDV’s performance are due to be released at its FY26 result on 24 August. We decrease FY27F and FY28F underlying EBIT by 2%. Despite this, our target price increases to $3.20 (from $2.80) due to an uplift in peer valuation multiples. However, with a 12-month forecast TSR of -3%, we downgrade our rating to TRIM from HOLD. We expect liquor demand to remain under pressure amid elevated interest rates, ongoing cost-of-living pressures and an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop. The new management strategy also carries execution risk, in our view.

MGH has secured a further $855m order from Firmus (delivered over eighteen months), and sees our baseline earnings step up materially. MGH will also be investing a further $300m in Firmus, which including a marked-to-market gain on the initial stake, takes MGH’s holding to $500m (or 3.2%). The scope of the pipeline, in addition to the interest income to be earned from the Western Sydney Aerotropolis site sees earnings risks to the upside. Given the moving parts, execution risk is elevated and as a result we apply a 20% discount to the peer multiple applied in our SOTP, and a 1.4 beta in deriving our DCF. The opportunity in front of MGH is clearly immense, and whilst not without its risks, we see the potential for outsized returns – BUY reiterated, price target increased to $7.30/sh (previously: $6.00/sh).

Boeing is a leading global aerospace and defence manufacturer, founded in 1916 and headquartered in Arlington, United States. The company designs and produces commercial airplanes, military aircraft, satellites, and space systems for customers in more than 150 countries. With a commercial airline market share of approximately 43%, Boeing remains a central player in global aviation. The company enters 2026 focused on production ramp-up, certification milestones for the 737 MAX 7, MAX 10 and 777-9, and a strategic recovery path under CEO Kelly Ortberg. Its extensive order backlog and diversified defence programs continue to underpin long-term growth opportunities.

4Q revenue accelerated 43% to US$27m on strong US commercial execution, with FY26 revenue of US$90.2m (+28%), exceeding upgraded guidance of US$87m and ahead of expectations. 4Q US implanted patients increased 50%, supported by 22% growth in active physicians and 23% higher physician utilisation, while the salesforce reached 161 representatives at year-end, ahead of the 154 target. With FY26 revenue now established, the investment debate shifts to FY27 salesforce productivity and operating leverage. Notably, c60% of the US salesforce was fully trained exiting FY26, with management targeting 70-80% during FY27, which we view as the first meaningful test of whether this can translate into materially higher revenue per rep and improving operating margins. We update FY26 revenue, with A$2.94 DCF-based TP unchanged. SPECULATIVE BUY maintained.

Mastercard is a technology company that provides transaction processing and other payment-related products and services in the United States and internationally. It facilitates the processing of payment transactions, including authorisation, clearing, and settlements. The company offers integrated products and value-added services for account holders, merchants, financial institutions, businesses, governments, and other organisations.