Research notes

Patience on Final Investment Decision (FID) continues to be rewarded - DYL's decision to defer Tumas in 2025 is increasingly being validated, with uranium contract prices materially stronger than when the project was postponed, supporting improved project economics and potential value at FID. FID drawing closer as Tumas execution readiness advances – Engineering (79%), procurement (76% tendered) and site works continue to progress, while the award of A$34m of civil and concrete contracts post-quarter further de-risks construction and reinforces management's targeted 4Q26 FID timeline. We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating with a price target of A$2.00ps (previously A$2.56ps).

CSC's 2Q26 marked its seventh consecutive quarter of record adjusted EBITDA, underscoring the consistency of its earnings growth and leverage to the copper cycle. Mantoverde's performance was outstanding, running above nameplate for the full quarter and beating on both volumes and costs. Maintain BUY with A$18ps target price.

TOR has released an updated MRE for its high-grade Paris Gold Project, delivering a ~40% increase in contained ounces versus the previous September 2024 estimate. The updated resource stands at 3.47Mt @ 3.1g/t Au for 351koz, an increase of 101koz Au. We continue to view Paris as an attractive asset given its high grade, proximity to existing processing infrastructure, and clear pathway to growth. However, consistent with management's strategy, we see the next stage of value creation being driven by regional discoveries and broader resource growth across the wider project area, rather than through a near-term small-scale development. Following a change in analyst coverage, we maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY with a target price of A$0.68 per share.

A good-looking 2Q26 operational and sales result, with operating revenue of US$4,185m up 28% qoq, 14.1% ahead of Visible Alpha (VA) consensus (US$3,668m) and 18% ahead of us (MorgansF US$3,545m). Roughly half the revenue beat came from marketing activity (lower margin). Strip that out and the beat narrows to ~6% on reported revenue, still healthy. Net debt of ~US$9.3bn was a rare negative, ~US$1.4bn above our estimate, but appears to be a cash flow timing factor. Nothing in Q2 materially changes our view. We update our TP to A$32.50 (from A$33.40) and maintain our HOLD rating.

BETR Entertainment delivered a strong 4Q26 result, with turnover of $404.3m up 1.2% on pcp and gross win increasing 7.5% to $57.1m, reflecting normalisation of racing and sports outcomes and a continuation and deliberate shift toward lower-volatility customers. Margins have continued their recovery trajectory, with gross and net win margins lifting 80bp to 14.1% and 10.9% respectively in the period. Most encouragingly, operating cash flow swung positively to $2.6m inflow, the first positive quarter since 2021, signaling a genuine inflection in the cash generation profile and validating conviction that the business is now self-sustaining at scale. Management has reaffirmed FY27 EBITDA guidance of $13-19m. July turnover growth of 15% (ex-FIFA World Cup) provides us with confidence on the profitability pathway. We maintain our BUY recommendation, with a revised $0.36 12-month target price.

Honeymoon guidance achieved following a challenging year - 4Q uranium production rebounded 79% qoq to 362klb, allowing BOE to achieve revised FY26 production guidance, while FY26 C1 costs (A$39/lb) and AISC (A$61/lb) also landed within guidance. Alta Mesa. What a disappointment - Alta Mesa production of just 45klb (100% basis) missed consensus by ~78%, highlighting the ongoing impact of permitting delays and reinforcing that meaningful production growth remains dependent on approval of new wellfields. We maintain our ACCUMULATE rating with a downgraded target price of A$1.40ps (previously A$1.55ps).

Costs beat at all three production centres and FY26 volumes finished above revised guidance. We view the result as largely neutral. FY27 guidance has been deferred to the 20 August FY26 result pending early KCGM Mill Expansion commissioning data. Move to an ACCUMULATE with a A$24ps target price.

4Q26 production and costs in-line, but stronger sales led to a +8% revenue beat against consensus expectations. FY27 production & cost guidance is in-line with expectations, while capex guidance is -18%/-9% vs MorgansF/consensus given we assume positive FID on P2000 and therefore incorporate this extra capex into our estimates for FY27. Maintain HOLD with A$4.60ps target price.

RIO's 1H26 was a strong result and a clean one, but we expect it was management’s talk of targeted US$5bn in H2 asset divestments (and resulting possible capital management) that drove RIO’s outperformance on the day. Earnings were broadly close to estimates (EBITDA below / NPAT above), while operating cash flow of US$9,173m was 5.0% ahead of consensus, free cash flow rose 75% to US$3,834m, and net debt of US$14,061m came in below any market estimates. The interim dividend of US211cps (+43%) held the 50% payout. RIO is executing well, the balance sheet is in better shape than we forecast, and the productivity gains are real. The problem is that none of this is a secret. RIO trades on 6.9x CY26 EV/EBITDA against BHP's 7.2x. We maintain HOLD with a slight trim to our target price to A$159.00 from A$163.00.

MIN delivered a strong 4Q26 result, with production and cost beats across mining services, iron ore and lithium. FY26 guidance was achieved or exceeded across every segment. Net debt reduced to A$4.3bn (-8% below expectations) and is now below 2x ND/EBITDA on our FY26 EBITDA forecasts. Move to a BUY (from ACCUMULATE) with an unchanged A$68ps target price.