Research notes

1H26 sales +21% (+5% LFL); Gross margins +60bps yoy; and strong NPAT growth of 29% to A$12m. The result was a small beat (+2%) versus our expectations. Vehicle sales growth was a highlight, with strong growth in New MCs (+23%) and Used (+18%) – both on improved margins (New GP +34%; Used GP +25%). The integration of Peter Stevens Motorcycles and Harley Heaven (PSM) continues to progress ahead of expectations. PSM remains in ramp-up of operations post-administration, with gross margins ahead of legacy Retail MTO operations and poised for further improvements in 2H26 as it progresses towards BAU. We view the earnings outlook as broadly positive and expect margin expansion to continue in the 2H (PSM and Mojo-led). We expect a resilient top-line outcome despite a slightly slower seasonal period as PSM continues to recover and further operational initiatives take shape. We continue to view the valuation as undemanding (~8x FY27F PE) relative to MTO’s commanding market position, strong balance sheet, and improving operational outlook.

1H26 showed solid revenue momentum, improving margins, and continued expansion of the US sales force, supporting confidence in a stronger 2H. Reiteration of FY26 revenue guidance (US$85m) added further comfort and now expects to exceed IPO metrics for gross margin, adjusted EBITDA and cash burn. No change at this stage to our FY26 forecasts, with our DCF-based TP unchanged at A$3.07. SPECULATIVE BUY maintained.

Management fee revenue grew 34% to $84.5m as AUM expanded 4% to $19.5bn, with headline EPS of 10.1c pre-tax softer yoy and well below consensus expectations, as energy transition gains are to fall in 2H26. The KKR Energy Transition partnership, closing mid-26, de-risks the balance sheet and unlocks a 5.7GW development pipeline, with full-year guidance reaffirmed at 40+c pre-tax EPS. We still see value in HMC, with our market-to-market NTA at c.$2.30 per share, or c.$3.00 when we factor in our valuation for the listed co-investments (HDN, HCW, DGT), while the c.$60m of recurring funds management EBITDA adds additional value. We retain a Buy with a $4.45 price target (down from $4.85).

SIG posted a solid 1H26, which was in line with consensus. The highlights included solid CW LFL sales growth (up 15%), revenue growth higher than cost growth by 4.5%, and synergy targets on track. We have made modest downgrades to forecasts (D&A and interest charges) resulting in a slight reduction to our target price of A$3.36 (was A$3.39). We move to an ACCUMULATE (was Buy) due to YTD share price strength.

MVF’s 1H26 result was in line with guidance provided in November, with underlying NPAT down 34% yoy to $10.4m (guidance $10-10.5m). FY26 guidance was re-iterated for underlying NPAT of $20m. During the period, MVF lost significant market share (down 2.5% to 19%), but remains the second largest player in Australia. We have lowered our NPAT forecasts by 4%/7% respectively in FY26/27. Our valuation lowers to $0.87 (from $0.90) driven by earnings revisions. We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation.

VEE’s 1H26 revenue was below management’s guidance range provided in November, but underlying EBITDA was in line. Performance was affected by weaker propulsion and gyro revenue, as well as a decline in defence revenue with ASC orders not received until late in the half. Management said FY26 will be a transition year with costs spent on US defence qualification, the new gyro Mark III and the recently launched VEEM Extreme range expected to yield stronger results in FY27. We adjust FY26/27/28F underlying EBITDA by -68%/-39%/-33%. Our target price declines to $0.80 (from $1.10) and we maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating. While the 1H26 performance was weak, we believe VEE’s outlook remains positive with multiple growth opportunities across defence (eg, HII, Northrop Grumman, Hunter Class Frigate Program), propulsion (VEEM Extreme, Sharrow), and gyros (Mark III). Timing of order flow remains uncertain, which is likely to cause earnings volatility in the near term. However, the long-term earnings potential of these opportunities remains significant.

NUZ has dosed the first patient in the HEALEY ALS Platform Trial, marking the shift from early proof of concept into a potentially pivotal clinical program. This represents a key milestone for the company and sets the stage for a more meaningful period of clinical news flow into 2H CY26 when enrolment is expected to complete. No changes to forecasts and maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating, noting the high risk / high reward proposition.

A comfortable result and well flagged in the recent 2Q26 report. Result soft on legacy roll off, but core testing remains strong with volumes up 113% and Explorer lifting to 55% of revenue. Cost base reset on track with underlying loss improving YoY, leaving MAP well positioned for a cleaner 2H with improving leverage and clearer revenue optics. Minor changes to forecasts and no change to target price of A$0.29 p/s. Retain Speculative Buy recommendation.

CUV delivered a softer result that landed below expectations, with top line underperformance and operational cost growth materially outpacing revenue. The combination of slower revenue growth, heavier opex, FX drag, and margin compression makes for an underwhelming print relative to expectations. While fundamentally cheap with a large cash balance providing valuation support and trading well below historical multiples, the outlook continues to hinge on clinical catalysts and a change in sentiment (strategic direction driven) which we view is unlikely to shift meaningfully in the near term. Minor downgrades due to higher OpEx base and adjustments to WACC. Our target price reduces to A$13 (from A$14) but retain a SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation.

We update our coverage of MM8 to incorporate the recently released Feasibility Study and positive EPBC permitting, outlining integration of the Forrestania processing infrastructure with the 1.2Moz AuEq Ravensthorpe Gold Project. MM8 is now fully funded, supported by a US$50m offtake-linked financing facility with commodity trader Trafigura, removing a key development overhang. We see strong parallels with covered stock ASX.MEK, where leveraging existing processing infrastructure drove a similar scale production profile and translated into outsized shareholder returns through the development phase. We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating, with a price target of A$0.87ps (previously A$0.61ps).