Research notes

Jumbo Interactive (JIN) reported a solid 1H26 result, with most headline metrics pre-released. While Lottery Retailing was impacted by a softer jackpot cycle, offshore segments delivered encouraging growth and margin expansion. Managed Services continues to build momentum, with Canada EBITDA guidance upgraded and the UK tracking nicely. Underlying SaaS trends remain healthy ex-Lotterywest. Following the update, we believe JIN can delever by FY27F, assuming a normalisation in Australian jackpot activity and continued offshore earnings growth. We have updated our model to reflect upgraded Managed Services and Prize Draw guidance, alongside refreshed FX assumptions. Our underlying EBITDA increases +1%/+5% across FY26-27F. We maintain our BUY recommendation with an unchanged $14.90 target price.

WGN delivered an exceptional set of results, with 1H26 EBIT beating guidance (+9.5%), our expectations (+8.4%) and consensus (+10.6%). Full year guidance was materially upgraded, with the implied 2H26 EBIT of $27-$31m a 32% beat vs prior guidance and consensus, as strong demand continues across construction materials, while CFT poles are on track to triple (vs FY25). The balance sheet is also now net cash, with the business well positioned to execute on its capex plans and capture continued demand for cement/concrete in South-East Queensland, along with CFT demand. This positive view sees us upgrade to a Buy recommendation with a $5.00/sh price target.

WTC’s 1H26 result was a modest beat to MorgF/Consensus with Revenue of US$672m (~2% ahead MorgF/consensus), Underlying EBITDA was US$252.1m (margins of 38%) and Underlying NPATA was US$114m, ~3% ahead of consensus of US$111.0m. FY26 guidance was reiterated, however the next phase of WTC’s Ai-led transformation came as a surprise with the group targeting a material head count reduction over FY26/FY27 as it leans into companywide Ai adoption to drive cost and workflow efficiencies on the path to a return to 50% EBITDA margins. Updating our numbers to reflect WTC’s 1H26 result and FY26 outlook sees our revenue and EBITDA forecasts revised lower by ~1-3% in FY26-FY28F. Our DCF/EV/EBITDA based price target is revised to A$83.60ps (from A$112.50ps), with our BUY rating retained.

IRE delivered a solid FY25 result with underlying EBITDA of A$136.2m, +4.7% ahead of our estimate, and the group’s FY25 guidance range. Divisionally each segment delivered solid EBITDA growth half on half, with APAC Wealth up +24.5%, UK Wealth +46%, and GTMD +8.6%. FY26 Cash EBITDA guidance (underlying EBITDA less capex) was provided at A$116-126m (representing 15-26% growth YoY). IRE flagged that capex for FY26 will remain in line with FY25, which implies further operating leverage is expected. We upgrade our underlying EBITDA forecasts by +5-6%, which sees our price target increase to $10.95 from $10.50. With over 50% implied TSR, we move to a BUY rating from ACCUMULATE.

Tabcorp Holdings (TAH) reported a very strong 1H26 result, with resilient turnover, improved margins and disciplined cost control driving double-digit EBITDA growth despite a softer wagering yield environment through the Spring Carnival and Footy Finals period. New and exclusive products resonated well, particularly with younger cohorts, with digital turnover among 18-24 year olds up +14%. Following the result, our EPS estimates increase +9%/+12% across FY26-27F, reflecting stronger Wagering & Media margins and sustained operating leverage. We maintain our Accumulate recommendation, while our target price increases to $1.20 (previously $1.07).

FLT’s 1H26 NBPT was up 4.1%, a beat on guidance for a flat result. The Corporate result was the highlight with NPBT was up 20%, while Leisure was better than feared down only 4%. The 3Q26 is off to a strong start and importantly Leisure is back in growth. FY26 guidance was reiterated. We have made minor upgrades to our forecasts. FLT’s fundamentals remain attractive (FY27 PE of 10.6x) and we retain a Buy recommendation with a new A$18.05 price target.

Amplitude’s 1H26 result was a clean beat across all key metrics, however Elanora being dry has lifted the importance of Isabella as a key near-term catalyst. EBITDAX beat MorgansF and VA estimates by 5%, with a larger NPAT beat. While the ECSP+ program is a critical set of catalysts, we see the share price reaction to Elanora as overdone. Maintain BUY rating with a A$3.50 target price.

ACF’s 1H26 result overall was slightly weaker than expected. While the Industrial Access segment delivered a strong result, Construction Services was impacted by ongoing soft trading conditions in QLD. We adjust FY26/27/28F underlying EBITDA by -3%/-6%-4%. Our target price decreases slightly to $1.28 (from $1.29), with reductions to earnings forecasts largely offset by a roll-forward of our valuation to FY27 estimates. While short-term softness in formwork activity will weigh on near-term earnings, management noted strong signs of increased activity in QLD in 4Q26, which should provide momentum heading into FY27. With Brisbane Olympics-related activity to also ramp up over the next 12-18 months, we continue to view ACF’s outlook as strong. Trading on 10.2x FY27F PE with a 5.1% yield, we believe ACF’s valuation remains attractive and maintain our BUY rating.

As expected GLF modestly beat on their FY25 earnings result. The business reported underlying NPAT of $90.0m coming in modestly above our forecast and consensus. The FY26 outlook was better than expected with management guiding to underlying EPS of 28.5 – 30.0cps. We position our forecasts at the upper end of management’s guidance. We retain our ACCUMULATE recommendation.

WOW’s 1H26 result overall was above expectations, with productivity and cost efficiencies a key highlight as all divisions delivered improved margins. Management said competition remains elevated and customers continue to be value-focused. While there were tentative signs of improving customer sentiment toward the end of CY25, persistent inflation and rising interest rates have led customers to revert to finding ways to save. We increase FY26-28F underlying EBIT by between 0-3%. While 1H26 performance was solid, we would prefer to see further evidence of consistent execution before moving to a more positive view on the stock. We therefore maintain our HOLD rating. Our target price increases to $37.30 (from $28.25) following a roll-forward to FY27 estimates and a higher valuation multiple of 25.5x (from 22x previously), reflecting improved execution and stronger sales momentum across all segments.