Research notes

TTX posted its 1H26 result which was in line with our forecasts. We remain focused on upcoming catalysts including: FDA submissions and clearance for the bone regeneration products Tegenix and TegenEOS; continued partner engagement for Tegenix and TegenEOS; moving towards additional clinical studies for the tissue spacing products (Tutelix and Optelex); clinical read-out of the primary endpoint (cohort 2) for TetraDerm (tissue healing); and complete relocation to the new manufacturing facility. We have made no changes to our forecasts or valuation. We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation.

After doing a post result deep dive into one-off versus recurring costs implied in 2H26 guidance, we now understand 2H26 includes a number of one-off costs. We update our forecasts, lowering our FY27/28 OPEX due to expectations of a higher underlying 2H26 exit rate EBITDA margin relative to that implied in guidance (which includes meaningful one-off costs in 2H26). We lift our FY27/28 EBITDA forecasts by 15-20%. Our forecasts now sit in line with consensus. Our target price lifts to $16.00 and we retain our Buy rating.

NGI’s 1H26 reported NPAT was well below consensus (-A$4.3m vs A$26m), however excluding more one-off items, the underlying EBITDA result was actually comfortably ahead of consensus (A$48m vs A$36m). Whilst acknowledging significant noise in the reported numbers here, we thought this result was reasonable observing; the underlying performance was better than expected, the company indicated solid comfort with current FY26 consensus, and the acquisition pipeline sounds active. We lower our NGI FY26F/FY27F adjusted EPS figures by -1%/-2% respectively. Changes to our numbers reflect a lift to underlying EBITDA expectations, offset by higher FY26 tax expense and increased interest and D&A costs. Our PT is reduced to A$3.35 (previously A$3.71) impacted by a higher AUD. With >20% upside to our revised price target, we move to a BUY call (previously Accumulate).

LAU’s 1H26 operating result was largely in line with our expectations, albeit a handful of factors (largely timing issues) saw cashflow and LAU’s net-leverage more muted in 1H26 (which should normalise into 2H26). Whilst market pressures remain, LAU is well placed to drive growth via incremental efficiency/scale benefits. We move to an ACCUMULATE rating, with an unchanged $0.80/sh Price target.

THL’s 1H26 result materially beat our forecast. Underlying EBIT was up 8% and NPAT increased 11%. THL reported a strong Rentals result, however Vehicles Sales and margins declined (now stabilising). We view the 1H26 as a strong outcome considering operating conditions were still somewhat challenging. The 1H is northern hemisphere weighted and THL was impacted by a weak US market. As a sign of confidence in its outlook, THL provided FY26 NPAT guidance, targeting growth of 50-65% on FY25. THL continues to target +NZ$100m NPAT over the next 3-4 years, underpinning a strong growth profile. THL’s trading multiples are undemanding, and it has material leverage to an improved economic cycle. We retain a BUY rating. Our new price target is A$3.29.

MI6 has agreed to a A$220m funding package with Franco-Nevada Corporation (Franco) to accelerate the development of the 4.6Moz Au Bullabulling Gold Project. The A$220m funding package consists of an updated A$170m royalty agreement lifting the total royalty to 2.45% (previously 1%) and a A$50m private placement to Franco at a 7% premium to last close. Based on our forecasts, the upfront royalty consideration implies a long-term gold price of ~A$7,500/oz Au. This is materially above consensus assumptions and suggests the funding has been secured on favourable implied terms for MI6. We maintain our BUY recommendation and lift our target price to A$1.20 (previously A$1.10).

SMR delivered a result broadly in line with market expectations. Operationally, 2025 was a record year, with Run-of-Mine (ROM) production reaching 20.5Mt and saleable coal output of 14.0Mt. This strong performance did not translate into higher Revenue/EBITDA/NPAT, with coal prices dropping to their cyclical lows during the year. Revenue and EBITDA declined ~21% and ~45% YoY respectively, and SMR reported a US$47m net loss for 2025 compared with a US$192m net profit in 2024. Despite the reported net loss, SMR has surprisingly rewarded its investors, declaring a US8.9c dividend. Dividend payments are forecast to cost ~US$80m. We upgrade our recommendation of SMR to HOLD (previously TRIM) with a target price of A$2.95ps. Our target price for SMR is set at a discount to NPV to reflect opacity in the short-term coal price outlook.

IFN delivered 1H26 pro forma EBITDA of A$10.5m (+18.7% pcp), with Energybuild the key driver (EBITDA +92% hoh) and FCF of A$2.9m (A$1.1m pcp) a highlight. Margin pressure within Minemet (~300bps vs pcp), a softer Pure result (EBITDA -4% hoh) and a meaningful 2H skew embedded in FY26PF EBITDA (2H implied A$14.5m) have weighed on the share price as delivery against prospectus forecasts (A$25m) appears at risk. While we expect the group may fall slightly short of FY26 expectations, we view the 2H composition as pointing to a broadly improving outlook, underpinned by a recovering Pure, stabilising Minemet margins, steady Merredin performance and accelerating Energybuild momentum. Acquisitions remain upside to forecasts. We view recent share price weakness as more than pricing in near-term earnings uncertainty, with the current valuation undemanding. BUY maintained.

DTL’s 1H26 result was in line with the midpoint of guidance provided at DTL’s October 2025 AGM. Guidance was for PBT of $32-34m (vs $33.5m just reported). This was up 2% YoY despite the full impact of rebate changes announced ~18 months ago. As expected, no formal full year guidance was provided. Overall the result was in line. We make immaterial forecast changes and our target price reduces slightly to $8.20 on a peer compco de-rate. Hold retained.

A meaningful step up in EBITDA (+33% on pcp) was offset by higher D&A (+43%) delivering A$3.1m of NPAT (vs MorgansF A$4.2m). LGI is well positioned for a stronger 2H26 (electricity price recovery + Mugga Lane online) and continues to excel operationally, delivering strength in biogas flows (+37%), generation (GWh +41%), ACCU volumes (+19%) and new site wins (+2). Steady progress across strategic growth projects (Mugga Lane, Belrose & Nowra) underpins a robust medium-term outlook as earnings step structurally higher. We view recent share price weakness from softer commodity prices as a compelling buying opportunity. FY26 EBITDA guidance (25-30% growth) has been reiterated and the long-term growth runway remains intact. Move to BUY.