Research notes

Adjusted EBITDA of US$329m a record and +16% ahead of consensus on strong realised copper prices and an in-line operating performance. March and early 2Q26 performance points to improving volumes and a stronger 2H26 profile. Sulphuric acid supply remains secure, however pricing is emerging as a cost headwind into 2H26 and 2027, partially offset by strong copper and by-product prices. Maintain BUY with a A$15.70ps target price.

Gold production of 26.1koz at an AISC of A$2,901/oz fell below expectations, although CYL generated solid operating cash flow of A$103m at an average realised price of A$7,014/oz. CYL continues to strengthen their balance sheet, adding A$39m during the quarter to close with A$277m in cash and bullion while reinvesting heavily across growth and exploration initiatives. Growth momentum continues across the Plutonic Belt, with multiple new ore sources advancing (Trident, K2, Old Highway) alongside a high-grade discovery at Cinnamon, supports the pathway to c.200kozpa production. We maintain our BUY rating, with valuation supported by strong cash generation and a clear production growth pipeline, albeit with near-term cost pressures emerging.

PNR reported gold sales for 3Q26 of 20.0koz at an AISC of A$3,204/oz, generating revenue of A$138.9m from an average realised price of A$6,916/oz. Production of 17.8koz fell below expectations despite the company’s revised guidance released in March, paired with a substantially higher cost of production. Whilst we forecast a narrow miss to FY26 guidance, we still anticipate a material uplift in 4Q26 ounce production as Gladstone open-pit delivers higher ore volume to the mill alongside Mega Resources ore treatment partnership. We maintain our BUY rating, with a price target of A$6.29ps (previously A$6.53ps) - the revision a function of adjustments to long-term head-grade and 4Q26.

Following a review of our research universe, we discontinue coverage of Coronado Global Resources (CRN AU). Our forecasts, target price and recommendation should no longer be relied upon for investment decisions.

SUN has provided an update on its aggregate reinsurance cover and its FY26 outlook. Overall, in our view, SUN securing an aggregate reinsurance cover will reduce future earnings volatility, whilst 2H26 claims are tracking below our expectations. We raise our SUN FY26F/FY27F EPS estimates by +3% and +1% respectively, reflecting lower-than-expected current year hazard claims relative to our prior forecasts, a mark-to-market and a modest adjustment to our forward UITR assumptions. Our price target increases to A$17.79 (previously A$17), driven by these earnings revisions. We believe SUN's management has executed well in recent years, successfully steering the company's strategy as a pure play general insurer. However, with the upside to our price target now more limited, we move to a HOLD recommendation.

A soft opening to FY26 saw two of three headline metrics narrowly miss consensus, though without material impact. FY26 production guidance is unchanged and the year remains back-end weighted. FOB cash cost guidance increased to US$98-103/t from US$93-97/t due to inflationary pressures on fuel costs. Our forecast FOB costs have been increased to ~US$99/t to reflect this guidance update. We have made material changes to forecasts that reduces our DCF valuation to A$2.80ps (previously A$2.95ps). Following recent share price weakness, we upgrade our recommendation to BUY (previously HOLD).

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WHC delivered a strong beat against consensus in 3Q with exceptional results for Saleable Coal Production (+9%) and Sales of Produced Coal (+13). FY26 guidance remains intact with high confidence in landing in the upper half of guidance, supported by strong sales and operational momentum coming into 4Q. Refinancing complete – A$50-55m annual interest savings locked in. We maintain an ACCUMULATE rating on WHC with a price target of $9.20ps.

6KA delivered a strong March quarter update, with revenue up 88% to US$6.2m. This implies an annualised run-rate of ~US$25m, up from ~US$22m in 4Q25, driven by solid demand from both new and existing customers. The run-rate is also ahead of our CY26 revenue forecast of US$22.8m, with the company capturing market share and improving operational metrics. Both the Powder (+100%) and Alloy (+70%) products divisions delivered strong revenue growth on the pcp, with a higher order backlog supporting sales momentum over coming months. We make no changes to earnings forecasts. In our view, 6KA remains well positioned to benefit from strong demand in metal additive manufacturing and US initiatives to reshore critical minerals, supported by its fully domestic powder production which reduces reliance on foreign-controlled feedstock. SPECULATIVE BUY rating and $1.30 target price maintained.

IFM Global Infrastructure Fund has launched an off-market takeover bid for the c.65.5% of ALX shares that it does not already own. A key condition precedent for the takeover bid to proceed is OTPP waiving its option to sell ALX its stake in the Chicago Skyway. Given IFM’s existing large (and growing) stake in ALX and the OTPP poison pill we believe it unlikely that a counter-bidder will emerge. Hence, our assessment is that risk at current prices is skewed to the downside ($4.22/share) rather than upside ($5.10/share). TRIM into current share price strength.