Research notes

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Research Notes

3Q26: Cash balance builds + MRE Growth

Regis Resources
3:27pm
April 24, 2026
Gold sales of 89.1koz at an AISC of A$2,807 beat our expectations whilst performing in line with company guidance, delivering revenue of A$622m at an average realised price of A$6,977/oz. RRL continues to build a substantial cash balance, adding an additional A$198m bringing the total to A$1.12bn. Replenished ounces with group MRE exceeding 10% yoy resource growth underpinning future production. We upgrade to BUY (from HOLD) following recent weakness across the gold sector which we believe has uncovered value in RRL underpinned by attractive immediate term cash generation paired with a structured capital management framework.

3Q26: pre-reported, positioned for a strong finish

Sandfire Resources
3:27pm
April 23, 2026
3Q26 production weakness was pre-flagged and driven by grade timing and weather impacts, with improving throughput at MATSA and grade uplift at Motheo to support a strong 4Q26 finish. Costs remain well controlled but risks are building through potential Middle East conflict impacts. Move to an ACCUMULATE (previously HOLD) rating with an unchanged A$20.40ps target price, with recent weakness presenting a more attractive entry point against a constructive copper outlook.

1H26: Earnings down but distributions increasing?

Bank of Queensland
3:27pm
April 23, 2026
BOQ’s 1H26 EPS declined -12% on the previous period, beating our forecast by 4% but missing Visible Alpha consensus by 3%. FY26-28F EPS adjustments of +1% to -4%. DPS upgraded to reflect higher payout ratio and forecast strength of CET1 capital ratio. Target price unchanged at $7.39. Upgrade from HOLD to ACCUMULATE, with recent share price decline lifting the potential TSR to c.18% TSR. BOQ’s attractive fully franked dividend and upcoming capital release may appeal in particular to income-oriented investors.

Advancing across the clinic, contracts and capacity

Tetratherix
3:27pm
April 23, 2026
TTX posted its 3Q26 results and operational update. Across each of its franchises TTX is making solid progress in line with previously stated timelines. We remain focused on upcoming catalysts across the four franchisees including: FDA clearance for the bone regeneration product (Tegenix and TegenEOS); clinical progress for the tissue spacing products (Tutelix and Optelex) and the tissue healing products (TetraDerm); and product supply in the precision medicine franchise (STEPP). We have made no changes to our forecasts, although a higher risk free rate (House View) sees our DCF based valuation reduce to A$6.84 (was $7.03). We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation and expect the cadence of news flow to increase over the balance of the year.

March 2026 quarterly update

Generation Development Group
3:27pm
April 22, 2026
GDG has provided a 3Q26 quarterly update. This quarterly was something of a familiar story, in our view - the Investment Bond business again delivered ahead of expectations, while Evidentia once again fell short of the mark. We lower our GDG FY26F/FY27F EPS by -4%-11% on more conservative earnings estimates particularly around Evidentia. Our price target is set at A$6.16 (previously A$6.66). We continue to be attracted to GDG’s exposure to structural growth areas, and its strong competitive positioning in these markets. With GDG trading at a >20% discount to our target price, we maintain our Buy recommendation.

Earnings reset - structural grower to cyclical reality

Cochlear
3:27pm
April 22, 2026
COH has delivered a material downgrade to FY26 earnings, cutting guidance by c30% at the midpoint. While FX, geopolitics and cost actions contributed, the key takeaway is more fundamental, with CI demand, especially in developed markets, proving to be more cyclical and macro-sensitive than previously assumed. This challenges the market’s long-held view as a structural, volume-driven growth story largely insulated from economic cycles. While we view long-term fundamentals as intact, near-term earnings visibility has deteriorated materially, so we wait for demand stabilisation before re-engaging. We adjust our FY26-28 estimates and lower our target price to A$107.17 HOLD.

A strong domestic GMV performance

Airtasker
3:27pm
April 22, 2026
Airtasker’s (ART) broadly solid 3Q26 update was underpinned by a strong GMV performance from the domestic marketplace, AU GMV being up ~18% on the pcp to ~A57m. Pleasingly, this momentum was also mirrored in its US/UK marketplaces which continue to scale. 3Q26 Group revenue was +~12% on the pcp to A$15.2m. Whilst our forecasts remain unchanged at this juncture, we adopt the new house risk-free rate of 4.6% (from 4.2%) into our valuation. Our price target is lowered to A$0.47 from A$0.51 as a result. We retain our BUY recommendation.

3Q26: Metrics improving

Northern Star Resources
3:27pm
April 22, 2026
Gold sold of 381koz at AISC of A$2,709/oz beat our revised expectations, with sequential improvement across all three production centres following ongoing production issues. KCGM Mill Expansion on track for commissioning in early FY27; FY26 guidance has been provided and is above 1,500koz at AISC of A$2,600–2,800/oz. Net cash of A$320m; A$500m on-market buy-back announced, commencing ~23 April. We maintain our BUY rating, price target A$30.00ps (unchanged).

Strong Scoping Study

Sunstone Metals
3:27pm
April 22, 2026
The Bramaderos (STM 87.5%) scoping study evaluated a low strip ratio (1.4:1) open pit with conventional processing to produce ~120kozpy gold equivalent (AuEq) over 23 years at a projected all-in sustaining cost (AISC) US$1,499/oz net of copper-silver credits, with upfront capital cost estimated at US$511M. The study is based only on the 3.6Moz AuEq Brama/Alba/Melonal deposit. Recent trenching at Porotillo reported 22m @ 1.19g/t AuEq and 29m @ 0.91g/t AuEq – both intersections open - above a drill hole of 24m @ 1.47g/t AuEq. Sunstone has an 87.5% interest in the Bramaderos tenement (London-listed SolGold Plc 12.5%), in southern Ecuador, hosting Brama/Alba/Melonal, Capete/Porotillo, Limon and other prospects. It is earning a 100% interest in El Palmar (1.2Moz AuEq in resource) and Verde Chico, northern Ecuador.

Guidance adjusted fueling at downgrade

Ebos Group
3:27pm
April 22, 2026
EBO has revised its FY26 EBITDA guidance down by ~2% (at the mid-point) noting elevated fuel and energy costs. We sat at the upper end of the previous guidance range which together with an adjustment to interest charges sees us downgrade EPS by ~8% in FY26. We have moved our target price to A$22.92 (from A$28.07) taking a cautious view of the near term. We see growth returning in FY28, in the meantime the yield is attractive at ~6%. Despite the share price weakness there is significant upside to our target price and we maintain a BUY recommendation. We note the Investor Day next week may restore some investor confidence.

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