Research notes

It was a strong 1Q26 trading update by MoneyMe (MME), in our view, highlighted by strong book growth (+26% on the pcp), driven by an increase in originations (+18% on pcp). Asset quality remains sound given the increased skew of secured assets on the book and pleasing net losses had trended lower q-o-q. We make only minor adjustments to our assumptions across the forecast period, largely factoring in the trading update and marginal improvements to our book growth estimate. Our DCF/PB blended valuation (equal-weighted) and price target is unchanged at A$0.21. Retain Speculative Buy recommendation.

At its AGM, HLO provided FY26 EBITDA guidance which was materially ahead of expectations. While new acquisitions are helpful, HLO is also seeing strong forward bookings. We have upgraded our forecasts. Given HLO’s undemanding trading multiples, improved trading conditions and contribution from new accretive acquisitions, we reiterate our BUY rating.

September quarter was about execution and positioning, BTL successful on both. C-5H IP30 flow test next – key proof point ahead. Approvals nearing FID; gas-plant works underway. Basin re-rating with Tamboran deal spotlighting value gap. Maintain SPECULATIVE BUY rating and A$0.70 valuation.

MAF has given a 3Q25 operating update. We think the update was strong across the board, with good momentum seemingly existing in all key business units. We continue to believe MAF is on track to beat all its FY26 divisional growth targets (MA Money is already there), with arguably the 40% group EBITDA margin target the stretch area. We lift our MAF FY25F/FY26F EPS by +2%-4% on increased growth assumptions across all key business streams. Our price target rises to A$10.80 (previously A$10.63). We see MAF as having strong operating momentum, and with >10% TSR upside existing on a 12-month view, we maintain our Accumulate recommendation.

Whilst new information at CKF’s recent Investor Day was limited, the key messaging was around the opportunity to unlock volume growth in Australia and the attractive medium to long-term opportunity to scale in Germany. FY26 guidance was again reiterated for low to mid-teens underlying NPAT growth. We continue to think that guidance is likely conservative, underpinned by the strength of its recent AGM trading update. It also includes Taco Bell losses (planned exit in FY26). We make no changes to our forecasts or price target. Near-term double digit EPS growth driven by KFC Australia through an improving domestic consumer and operational excellence remains attractive. Given recent share price strength, we move to ACCUMULATE from BUY.

Steady 1Q26 result with production weaker qoq but in line with expectations. Strong copper prices and shipments saw group underlying EBITDA of US$137m. Net debt reduced a further -50% to US$62m with net cash now imminent. Maintain HOLD rating with a A$15.80ps target price (previously A$12.50ps).

PNR delivered a softer-than-expected operating result for 1Q, even relative to our already conservative expectations despite record gold prices. A series of isolated operating issues and underground mine sequencing drove lower head-grade and thus lower ounce production and higher unit costs. PNR has reiterated its FY26 guidance. We have adjusted our forecasts to reflect the 1Q miss. We maintain a TRIM rating with a price target of A$5.02ps (previously A$5.96ps).

IAM’s 1Q26 trading update highlighted a solid quarter overall for the group, in our view, with its revenue growing ~35% on the pcp to ~A$5.4m. IAM also provided additional commentary around the recent fraud incident and quantified the likely impact at ~A$3m. Our FY26F EBITDA is lowered to A$2m on additional costs, predominantly in 1H26. Our FY27-FY28 revenue and EBITDA estimates increase ~2% on slightly higher FUA growth assumptions. Our price target is unchanged at A8.4cps.

FND has given a market update as part of the Morgans Conference. FY26 guidance was softer than hoped, impacted by one-off factors including the integration of recent acquisitions and some delays rolling out Brown Label ATM contracts. We think FND is probably tracking ~six months behind where it hoped to be, albeit management expects the company to return to more normal business run rates by 4Q26. We make sizable downgrades to our FND FY26F/FY27F EPS (>-20%) reflecting revised FY26 company guidance, together with more conservative overall future earnings estimates. Our price target is lowered to A$5.42 (from A$7.57). Whilst acknowledging FY26 is shaping as a transitional year for FND, we think all emerging market stories ultimately need investor patience, together with a focus on the bigger picture. In our view, FND’s underlying operating momentum remains strong (highlighted by operating revenue being expected to increase ~+60% in FY26), whilst the company’s IPO of its Indian operating business remains a unique near-term catalyst.

CVW has given a market update as part of the Morgans conference. The 1Q26 update, in our view, pointed to a generally solid business performance, with 1Q26 claims tracking in line with expectations. We make nominal changes to our CVW FY26/FY27 EPS of ~+1%. Our price target rises to A$0.73 (from A$0.69) on a valuation roll-forward. With significant upside to our price target (~+25%), we maintain our BUY recommendation.