Research notes

We revise our forecasts ahead of ANZ’s 1H26 result in May and reflecting on the recent updates provided by NAB and WBC. FY26-28F EPS downgraded by 6-7%. Target price reduced 6% to $30.72/sh. SELL retained given c.-15% downside at current prices, including 4.4% cash yield.

NGI has released its March 2026 quarterly AUM update. This was a broadly solid quarter, in our view, punctuated by a +9% increase in group Ownership adjusted AUM in a volatile market, and robust quarterly net flows into Lighthouse (+US$1.2bn). We update our NGI numbers for the quarterly and also following a broad review of our earnings assumptions. Our FY26F EPS estimate is revised down -3%, reflecting more conservative performance fee assumptions for the current year, while FY27F EPS moves up +2% on higher FUM estimates following today's update. Our PT is largely unchanged at A$2.97. We maintain our NGI BUY rating with >20% upside to our PT.

NAB announced a $1.8bn DRP equity raising, increased loan provisioning, and acceleration of capital software amortisation. Material forecast downgrades as we adjust for today’s announcement and introduce increased conservatism into our modelling. SELL given potential TSR at current prices of -12% (including c.4.2% cash yield).

While the Middle East conflict is a moving feast, WOR estimates a FY26 EBITA impact of $30-40m, which represents 4-5% vs VA consensus ($830m). The company has indicated that it is now “unlikely” to achieve its prior guidance for EBITA growth in FY26. This comes following a softer-than-expected 1H26 segment result. Looking ahead, WOR should see some medium-term support from Middle East repair activity and a broader uplift in global upstream hydrocarbon spending driven by renewed energy security concerns. However, consensus already embeds strong growth into FY27, and risks persist, including project concentration risk associated with larger EPC work, and a structural shift in upstream hydrocarbon capex toward subsea and shale where WOR is underweight. We reduce our EBITA forecasts by ~5% across our forecast period and lower our target price to $11.60 (from $12.20).

Hermès International, a French high-fashion luxury goods manufacturer, was founded in 1837 by Thierry Hermès. Hermès is known for its high-end craftsmanship. It specialises in leather goods, lifestyle accessories, home furnishings, fragrances, jewellery, watches, and ready-to-wear apparel. Many of its products have an equestrian theme, reflecting Hermès’ heritage in saddle making. Some of Hermès products, notably the Birkin and Kelly handbags, as well as its silk scarves, have attained iconic status in consumer culture.

MPK delivered a maiden MRE of 26.7Mt at 1.54g/t Au for 1.32Moz at the Ferké Gold Project, a material beat vs our estimate of 1Moz at 1.1g/t Au. Importantly, 1.1Moz of the MRE sits within the Measured and Indicated category, forming the basis of our production scenario. We expect 80-90% of this to convert to reserve given the ideal geometry of the resource and its amenability to mining. We see further upside as assumptions are refined (geotechnical inputs, process recoveries and additional drilling) as the project progresses toward PFS. We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation and lift our price target to A$2.48ps (previously A$1.92ps).

SKS’s recent contract expansion with its major customer has bolstered the group’s outlook, adding a further $80m of work, and broadening its pipeline of FY27 work in hand to $240m. DC sector demand remains robust, with various operators continuing to expand their capex/build activity over the coming years, and we continue to see a significant pipeline of DC build opportunity into FY27-28+. We upgrade our forecasts by ~13+14% in FY27-28F, reflecting our expectations for SKS to continue building on strong forward levels of work in hand / BAU run-rate into FY27+. We retain our ACCUMULATE rating with a revised PT of $6.70.

We revise our CKF forecasts ahead of the FY26 result in June, trimming underlying NPAT to reflect deferred store openings, reset German acquired store economics, and a lower EU SSS assumption to better capture the Netherlands-skewed mix for FY26, partially offset by a marginal AU SSS upgrade on sustained KFC Australia momentum. We maintain our BUY recommendation and reduce our price target to $12.50 (from $12.70).

In this note, we deploy a new PME model where we have deliberately set a lower bar. Our remodelled estimates prioritise achievability over optimism, staging implementation revenue conservatively and mark FX to spot. We see this as the right framework for a stock where sentiment has been fragile. On the business operations front, the story remains untarnished. Contract newsflow since February has been exceptional: ~$100m in wins and renewals, all at higher pricing, with cardiology upsell gaining traction. The demand story is not in question. We re-emphasise our positive long-term conviction on the name although lower our valuation to reflect current but potentially fleeting headwinds. Our target price is reduced to A$210 p/s and we retain our Buy recommendation.

NWL's 3Q26 net-flows of $3.96bn came in modestly ahead of expectations, however market volatility during the period eroded this solid performance to see 3Q26 FUA ending the quarter flat QoQ at A$125.8bn, (vs. Consensus A$129.8bn). Despite ongoing volatility and uncertainty tied to a US/Middle East conflict and a potential resolution, market momentum has recovered from peak pessimism in the March Quarter, with the ASX All Ordinaries +5.6% month-to-date in April’26, which will have seen FUA growth momentum improve post quarter end. Looking through this near-term volatility NWL remains on track deliver solid growth FY26F and well placed to capitalised on the long runway of opportunity ahead. We retain our ACCUMULATE rating, with a Price target of $29.00/sh.