Investment Watch is a quarterly publication delivering insights into equity strategy and economic trends. The Winter 2026 edition explores how the global economy enters Q3 2026 with the Iran conflict re-escalating, a reminder that the road to resolution is rarely straight. Markets have absorbed the renewed uncertainty better than many feared, reflecting the underlying resilience we have been backing all year.

Investment Watch is a quarterly publication produced by Morgans that delves into key insights for equity and economic strategy.

This edition arrives with the Iran conflict re-escalating, yet markets have absorbed the renewed uncertainty better than many feared. That resilience is why we stay the course. We see a strong second half for growth assets, powered by artificial intelligence, energy security and a global earnings cycle that keeps delivering.

The watchpoint is inflation. It is proving stickier than hoped, keeping interest rates higher for longer and rewarding investors who focus on income over speculation. We are optimistic, but clear eyed. The best returns in the second half will go to those who stay invested, stay diversified, and resist the temptation to sit on the sidelines.


Morgans clients receive exclusive insights such as access to our latest Investment Watch publication. Contact us today to begin your journey with Morgans.

      
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Michael Knox discusses the RBA’s decision to hold rates in September and outlines the conditions under which a November rate cut could occur, based on trimmed mean inflation data.
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Economics and markets
In recent days, several people have asked for my updated view on the Federal Reserve and the Fed funds rate, as well as the outlook for the Australian cash rate. I thought I’d walk through our model for the Fed funds rate and explain our approach to the RBA’s cash rate.
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Economics and markets
The Wall Street Journal of 21 August 2025 carried an article which noted that Ether, a cryptocurrency long overshadowed by Bitcoin has surged in price in August
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Economics and markets
Uncover insights from Jackson Hole: Jay Powell’s rate cut hints, Fed’s soft landing concerns, and dire demographic trends. Analysis by Morgans’ Chief Economist.
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Economics and markets
Michael Knox, Chief Economist explains how the RBA sets interest rates to achieve its 2.5% inflation target, predicting a cash rate reduction to 3.35% by November when inflation is expected to reach 2.5%, based on a historical average real rate of 0.85%.
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Economics and markets
Michael Knox, Chief Economist looks at what might have happened in January 2026 if the cuts in corporate tax rates in Trumps first term were not renewed and extended in the One Big Beautiful Bill
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Economics and markets
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