Research notes

Copper production remains resilient while by-products and costs reflect the absence of zinc-rich ore from Xantho Extended. The balance sheet is currently stable but disciplined execution through CY26 remains critical as the business manages elevated funding requirements while operating without its highest-grade ore source. Maintain HOLD with a A$0.26ps Target Price.

EDV’s trading update overall was slightly below expectations. While EDV’s Retail division continues to outperform Coles Group’s (COL) Liquor segment and win market share, the market remains subdued outside of key events such as Easter. After a strong start to 2H26, Hotels momentum softened in March amid growing cost of living pressures. Management has flagged higher costs in relation to inventory, fuel and freight, with a $100m cost out program targeted for delivery in FY27 expected to improve efficiency and mitigate inflationary pressures. We decrease FY26-28F underlying EBIT by 3-4%. Our target price declines to $3.30 (from $3.65) and we maintain our HOLD rating.

Boeing is a leading global aerospace and defence manufacturer, founded in 1916 and headquartered in Arlington, United States. The company designs and produces commercial airplanes, military aircraft, satellites, and space systems for customers in more than 150 countries. With a commercial airline market share of approximately 43%, Boeing remains a central player in global aviation. The company enters 2026 focused on production ramp-up, certification milestones for the 737 MAX 7, MAX 10 and 777-9, and a strategic recovery path under CEO Kelly Ortberg. Its extensive order backlog and diversified defence programs continue to underpin long-term growth opportunities.

IPD announced a A$15.2m capital raise together with cost saving initiatives as it plans to reach breakeven by FY28. The new capital will also partly repay debt that has been overhanging the company. Our focus has been the rate of growth of SOZO in the US. IPD delivered 30 units in 3Q26, which was below our forecast of 40 units, however the cadence of new orders appears to be improving. We have adjusted our forecasts down taking a more cautious stance on SOZO installed base growth. Also, we have adjusted our model for the capital raising. As a result, our DCF based valuation has decreased to A$0.02 (was $0.05). We have maintained our SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation for investors with a higher risk tolerance.

3QFY26 activity continued to build on strong 1H performance, with accelerating US commercial momentum underpinning another revenue upgrade. Revenue grew 13% QoQ to US$23.8m (+34% YoY), supported by strong growth in implanted patients (+55% YoY), active physicians and utilisation, we believe highlighting increasing traction across the US footprint. We view the second consecutive guidance upgrade (now US$87m, +24% YoY) as evidence of improving visibility, with salesforce scaling and physician productivity continuing to trend ahead of expectations. We update FY26 forecasts in line with guidance, with our DCF-based target price lowered to A$2.94, mainly on FX and risk-free rate adjustments. SPECULATIVE BUY maintained.

3QFY26 activity highlights improving execution, with DETECT enrolment and site activation now gaining traction following a slow start. Since 1HFY26, EPI has expanded to 18 Tier-1 US centres and increased enrolled patients to 15 (from 3 in February), remaining on track to reach 25 this month. Cash burn was lower than expected, reflecting timing of site invoicing, while runway remains intact through CY28. We adjusted FY26-28 forecasts and lowered our DCF-based target price to A$2.23 mainly on risk-free rate adjustment. SPECULATIVE BUY rating maintained.

ARX has upgraded FY26 revenue and EBITDA guidance driven mainly by higher Myriad sales. We have revised our forecasts in line with guidance and increased our risk free rate (house view) which results in a small downgrade to our DCF valuation to A$0.77 (was $0.79). ARX will release its FY26 results on 26 May which will include FY27 guidance. The market will focus on revenue growth (MorgansF sit at 15%) and commentary around the continuing momentum with Myriad and SymphonyTM. We maintain our BUY recommendation with investor sentiment towards the name improving.

RMD’s 3Q result was solid, with double-digit revenue and earnings growth, further margin expansion and strong cash flow generation. Sleep and respiratory demand remains robust, with continued mask strength and ROW re-acceleration, while SaaS remains stable but subdued. Notably, GM expansion continues, underpinned via manufacturing, procurement and logistics efficiencies. And while macro uncertainties remain and investors seemingly focus on variability in US device growth while pondering if the Noctrix acquisition is merely a ‘plug’ to a slowing core, we view these concerns as myopic and manageable. We adjust FY26-28 forecasts modesty with our target price declining to A$41.72, mainly on house changes to FX and risk-free rate. BUY.

1H26 revenues were flat on an underlying basis, but cost decline and credit impairment charges were better than expected. Target price increased 4% to $31.85/sh, given 3-6% earnings upgrades and decision to recommence neutralising the DRP. Upgraded from SELL to TRIM, given potential TSR at current prices of c.-6%.

We attended BGA’s Investor Day. Despite the cost pressures associated with the conflict in the Middle East, BGA reiterated its FY26 EBITDA guidance. It also upgraded its FY28 EBITDA target and provided an FY31 EBITDA target for its next 5-year strategy. BGA’s targets underpin solid earnings growth profile across the forecast period, whilst maintaining a strong balance sheet. Our FY26 forecasts remain unchanged, while in FY27 and FY28, we have reduced NPAT for higher D&A associated with BGA’s capital growth projects. We maintain an Accumulate rating with a new price target of A$6.50. BGA remains well placed given its portfolio of iconic household brands, its focus on developing higher margin products with functional health benefits, its expansion into growth channels both domestically and overseas and network optimisation plans.