Research notes

3Q met expectations, but FY25 revenue guidance walked back again. While US reimbursement for RECELL is now largely restored and a positive for future sales momentum, the impact is yet to show in results. Execution and capital risks sit front of mind. Capital constraints and slowness to sales recovery hamper our near-term expectations but ultimately expect the clinical benefits to continue to win market share and increased adoption. Still cautiously optimistic but would like to see the balance sheet addressed first. Likely needs a material raise to get more confident in outlook and ability to reinvigorate the sales pipeline. Our target price reduces to A$1.35 p/s.

Light & Wonder's (NDAQ/ASX: LNW) strong 3Q25 result was met with a well-deserved positive reaction, alleviating market concerns around FY25 guidance delivery with a much more achievable 4Q25 implied outlook. Given the imminent NASDAQ delisting, the timing of this beat positions the company exceptionally well heading into FY26. LNW delivered record margin expansion across all three segments, with iGaming operating leverage the standout performer, while land-based margins surprised on favourable product mix as Grover scales and premium installed base momentum continues. Our FY25-26F estimates remain largely unchanged. We rate LNW a BUY recommendation, A$175 12-month target price.

2H25 earnings (-2% vs 1H25) missed market expectations of a flat result. While NAB has loan growth and revenue momentum heading into 1H26, it also has momentum in costs and showed signs of asset quality deterioration and tightness in regulatory capital. This is likely to see limited (if any) DPS growth and constrain capital management over coming years. We make +/-1% changes to FY26-28 forecast earnings, targeting mid-single digit earning growth over the forecast period. NAB is trading at historical extremes of key valuation metrics. The 2H25 result and earnings outlook doesn’t justify such pricing. SELL retained at current prices. Target price $31.46 (+23 cps).

AMC’s 1Q26 result was in line with management’s guidance despite a generally subdued volume environment. Importantly, management has reaffirmed FY26 underlying EPS guidance of US80-83cps (MorgansF US81.3cps), representing 12-17% growth at constant FX. This includes expected synergies from the Berry acquisition of “at least US$260m”, reflecting slightly increased confidence compared to the previous guidance of “approximately US$260m”. We make negligible changes to FY26-28F underlying EBIT overall despite minor adjustments to segmental splits. However, our DPS forecasts have been revised lower to reflect AMC’s historical pattern of increasing dividends by US1.0cps pa. Our target price is maintained at $15.20 and with a 12-month forecast TSR of 25%, we upgrade our rating to BUY (from ACCUMULATE). Following AMC’s solid 1Q26 result, management’s increased confidence in delivering FY26 synergy targets, and the reaffirmation of FY26 guidance, we believe the outlook remains positive. Trading on 10.4x FY26F PE with a 6.1% yield, we view the valuation as attractive. Potential positive catalysts include meeting or exceeding expectations in upcoming quarterly results and the successful completion of additional asset sales.

Siemens AG is a technology company which engages in the areas of automation and digitalisation. It operates through the following segments: Digital Industries, Smart Infrastructure, Mobility, Siemens Healthineers, and Siemens Financial Services.

MX1 is making progress across all business units: Rover Plus (portable x-ray unit) where orders with the Malaysian Ministry of Health and Supply Agreements with hospitals in the US have been executed; the Head CT and full body CT have secured key funding contracts; and the first prototype of a new baggage and parcel scanner CT scanner has been delivered to Billion Prima. The 1Q26 cash flow report was in line with expectations and although cash remains tight, the cash balance will be assisted by receipts in 2Q from product sales and grant funding. We have made no changes to forecasts or target price. We maintain a SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation.

Execution remains best-in-class: Scarborough, Sangomar and Trion all tracking on time and budget. Louisiana progressing under de-risked funding structure. Growth to 2032 with net operating cash flow guided to ~US$9bn (+6% CAGR) with a pathway to ~50% higher dividends. Partner sell downs (Stonepeak, Williams) back-load capex and cut near-term funding by >US$5 billion. Market remains cautious on midstream Louisiana model, but it solves previous major gap in fundamentals as Pluto/NWS output declines in future years. We maintain our BUY rating and unchanged A$30.50 target price.

TCG has released an updated Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) which now stands at 4.06Moz Au @ 1.2g/t Au (previously 3.55Moz Au) – Importantly, this comes just 5 months after the last update and demonstrates a 23% uplift in the ‘indicated’ category supporting future mine planning. Despite the growth all deposits remain open at depth and/or along strike and excludes recent work conducted at Woulo Woulo, Anuiri, Adiopan, Baffia, Herman and Niamienlessa. TCG are currently adding ~100koz Au per month even with wet season constraints. We believe the next MRE update (1Q CY2026) will be in the realm of 4.5Moz Au, and note as the dry season approaches, TCG will access potential quantum changing drill targets. We upgrade our rating to BUY (previously SPECULATIVE BUY – noting TCG now hosts one of the largest undeveloped gold projects on the ASX.

The recent extension of ACE’s QLD mobile speed contract and launch of Forsite (Road Worker Safety) provides further confidence in the momentum of ACE’s Domestic business and represents a milestone towards broadening the groups addressable market. We reiterate our SPECULATIVE BUY rating with a $2.30PT (prev. $2.05).

GMG continues to reiterate the immense data centre opportunity ahead – 5GW of potential capacity across key global gateway cities. However, the longer time to develop these assets is seeing capital intensity increase as data centres form a larger proportion of work-in-progress (WIP). All while consensus EPS expectations continue to moderate – consensus now largely forecasts low double digit EPS growth through FY26/27/28 (vs prior expectations of mid double digits). Details of the lease-terms and funding partners remain scant, whilst negotiations progress. Combined with the 2H skew for FY26 earnings, the likelihood of an FY26 earnings beat declines. That said, we attribute much of the recent share price decline to the shifting narrative around the outlook for hyperscale capex. To this end, we see the recent share price retracement more as an opportunity retaining our ACCUMULATE rating and $36.30/sh price target.