Research notes

A2M’s FY26 earnings downgrade was due to factors largely out of its own control, being higher freight/supply chain costs associated with the conflict in the Middle East and delays getting product released (enhanced testing and customs clearance) following peer recalls. Importantly, the demand for its products is strong. Guidance has been revised due to supply constraints (lower sales and product mix issues dilute margins) and higher costs. We have revised our forecasts. In our view, while some of the issues are one-off in nature, increased costs associated with the conflict are likely to continue into FY27. Despite this, we still expect strong growth in FY27 given A2 Pokeno is expected to break even and new China label (CL) IF products will be launched. Following material share price weakness, we upgrade to an ACCUMULATE recommendation with a new price target of A$8.70 (was A$9.50).

MVF has received a revised takeover proposal of 100% of shares from a consortium (Genesis Capital and Soul Patts) for $0.90 per share via Scheme of arrangement. This is up from the previous offer of $0.80 offer rejected in November 2025. The consortium has flagged this as the best and final offer (in absence of a competing bid) and is valid until 21 April 2026. As at 24 November 2025, the consortium held ~19.6% of ordinary shares on issue. We have made no changes to forecasts but have increased our target price in line with the offer price of $0.90. We have a SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation.

We have updated our 2H26 forecasts to reflect weather impacts in 3Q26, which we expect to have a modest effect on Onslow iron ore shipments, alongside minor increases to cost and capex assumptions driven by inflation in shipping and fuel. We have also incorporated our revised LT iron ore price of US$85/t (previously US$80/t). Net these changes our target price moves to A$67ps (previously A$68ps) and we move to an ACCUMULATE rating (previously BUY) as recent share price strength has reduced valuation upside.

GQG has provided a March FUM update. Whilst GQG monthly outflows remained negative (-US$1.2bn), they did improve significantly on the February and January levels (-US$3.2bn and -US$4.2bn respectively), albeit it was a more difficult month for investment performance (-~US$9bn) - in line with market volatility. We lower our GQG FY26F/FY27F EPS by -5%-8% based on the reduced FUM levels detailed in the quarterly. Our PT is set at A$1.92 (previously A$2.03). We continue to see medium-term value in GQG, but with less upside to our PT we move from BUY to ACCUMULATE.

Alphabet Inc., known predominantly as the holding company of Google, is an American multinational technology conglomerate. The company offers a range of products and platforms, including Search, Google Maps, calendar, ads, Gmail, Google Play, Android, Google Cloud, Chrome and YouTube. Its hardware product range includes Pixel phones, smartwatches and Google Nest home products. Alphabet Inc. is also known for its online advertising services, internet services, and licensing and research & development services. The company is headquartered in California, US, but is present across the Americas, Europe and Asia-Pacific.

Wrkr (WRK) is an Australian regtech company that helps employers simplify workforce compliance across the hire to retire lifecycle. FY26 is a critical transition year for WRK, with the onboarding of large client wins setting it up to turn a profit in FY27. With a strong balance sheet (A$16m of cash at 1H26) and playing in markets supported by regulatory tailwinds, we think WRK is well positioned to deliver sustainable growth. We initiate coverage on WRK with a BUY recommendation, with the stock trading at a ~25% discount to our blended valuation of A$0.14 per share.

1Q26 delivered a step-change in commercial execution, with 41 implants (+128% q/q) and preliminary revenue of US$2.25-2.36m, materially ahead of prior run-rate. Importantly, growth is being driven by repeat usage, not just new site additions, with the majority of 1Q implants coming from existing centres, supporting confidence in utilisation and scalability. Leading indicators remain strong, with 37 purchasing agreements, 55 physicians trained, and double-digit physician training demand, alongside with emerging multi-site IDN/GPO contracts. Commercial bottleneck remains execution (sales capacity and contracting), not demand, with patient backlogs building and physician engagement “very high”. We make no changes to CY26-28 forecasts or A$2.47 DCF-based valuation. BUY.

ORA’s trading update highlighted challenging operating conditions at Saverglass stemming from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The conflict has affected operations both directly and indirectly: directly through the effective closure of ORA’s Ras Al Khaimah (RAK) facility in the UAE, and indirectly through lower spirits volumes and an adverse product-mix shift, which have weighed on earnings. We adjust FY26/27/28F underlying EBIT by -8%/-11%/-10%. Our target price declines to $1.55 (from $2.30) and we maintain our HOLD rating. Given the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the conflict in the Middle East, visibility on the timing of a potential restart at the RAK facility remains limited. In addition, global consumer confidence and spirits demand have already been negatively affected by the conflict and may remain subdued for some time, even in the event of a near-term resolution. Given this uncertainty, we believe it is prudent to await further updates before reassessing our view. Within the Packaging sector, our preference remains Amcor (AMC, BUY, $76.00 TP).

SIG is a leading healthcare wholesaler, distributor and retail pharmacy franchisor with operations in Australia, NZ, Ireland and the UAE. We are forecasting ~20% EBIT growth p.a. over the next few years driven by strong LFL sales growth, store rollout (domestically and internationally), operating efficiencies and $100m p.a. synergies by FY29. Given the share price weakness, we have upgraded our recommendation to BUY (from ACCUMULATE) with an unchanged target price of $3.36 and 26% upside.

6K Additive (6KA) is a US-based advanced materials company that upcycles metal waste into engineered feedstock, producing high-value powders and alloys for aerospace, defence, medical, energy, and industrial applications. The company delivered 4Q25 revenue of US$5.6m (representing a run-rate of ~US$22.4m pa) with over 100 active customers including ABB, Boeing and Ford. 6KA has a potential sales pipeline of ~US$250m pa and plans to use proceeds from its recent IPO (Dec-25) to consolidate and scale its operations in the US. This will result in a 5x increase in powder production capacity (from 200mt to 1,000mt) and deliver significant margin improvement and production efficiency. We initiate coverage on 6KA with a SPECULATIVE BUY rating and a target price of $1.30. Backed by proven technology, a closed-loop model, and broad customer validation, we believe the company is well-positioned to benefit from strong demand in metal additive manufacturing and US government initiatives to reshore the sourcing and processing of critical minerals. Trading on 3.7x FY27F (Jun Y/E equivalent) EV/Revenue versus a domestic peer median of 9.5x, we view 6KA’s valuation as relatively attractive - though suited to more assertive investors.