Research notes
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Research Notes
Broad based beat, margins expand, momentum builds
ResMed Inc
February 1, 2026
2Q beat across the board, with double-digit revenue and earnings growth, further gross margin expansion and solid cash generation. Sleep and respiratory sales were strong in both regions, with above-market growth in the Americas and ROW returning to market growth, while SaaS beat expectations, but remained subdued by residential care headwinds. Operating leverage improved again, with gross margin gains from manufacturing and logistics efficiencies, and FY26 guidance tightened to 62-63% (from 61-63%), reinforcing confidence in ongoing margin progression. We adjust FY26-28 forecasts modesty and move to BUY with a A$47.73 target price, viewing recent share weakness unjustified given sound fundamentals.
Guidance lifted as commercial momentum builds
Saluda Medical
February 1, 2026
2Q activity report debut did not disappoint, highlighting accelerating US commercial momentum, cost actions to reduce future operating expenses and upgraded FY26 revenue guidance. Revenue growth jumped 15% QoQ, supported by rising implanted patient volumes, and continued expansion of both sales reps and implanting physicians, while cash outflow fell 14% QoQ on a lower fixed cost base supportive of operating leverage. We believe management’s decision to lift FY26 revenue guidance c4% at this early-stage post-IPO reflects improving visibility on sales execution and demand trends, reinforcing confidence in a stronger 2H performance. We update FY26 forecasts in line with guidance, with our DCF-based TP unchanged at A$3.07. SPECULATIVE BUY maintained.
Dark skies part – when overhang meets opportunity
Neurizon Therapeutics
January 30, 2026
Following FDA clearance, the imminent start of the Ph2/3 trial and the removal of the funding overhang providing full visibility through the pivotal program, NUZ now offers one of the cleanest entry points seen in the past 18 months, with major risks cleared and a condensed catalyst runway ahead. Recent M&A activity underscores the scarcity value of ALS assets and provides a meaningful valuation anchor for NUZ if its clinical program delivers. Post recent capital raises, we update for the new share issuances which drive a reduction in our target price to A$0.28 from A$0.39, although we maintain our Speculative Buy rating, noting the high risk / high reward proposition.
Operational momentum supports outlook
Aeris Resources
January 30, 2026
Solid 2Q26 delivery. Cracow continues its strong performance and Tritton operated broadly to plan. Our earnings forecasts and valuation have been upgraded to reflect the company’s improved earnings outlook for the remainder of FY26 in the current copper and gold price environment. We maintain an ACCUMULATE rating with a A$0.70ps TP (previously A$0.60ps).
2Q26 Result: On Track
Ramelius Resources
January 30, 2026
RMS reported its 2Q26 result following its pre-release update on 8 January, delivering production of 45.6koz at an AISC of A$1,977/oz. RMS remains on track to meet FY26 guidance of 185–205koz at an AISC of A$1,700–A$1,900/oz, with YTD production now at 100.6koz at an AISC of A$1,901/oz. Lower production reflects the ongoing tapering of Cue open pit head grades, partially offset by higher-grade feed from Penny (9.8g/t Au). Importantly, development at Dalgaranga has now accessed the high-grade Never Never orebody, with initial development ore stockpiled (16kt at 3.5g/t Au), providing a positive lead indicator for grade uplift into coming quarters. We upgrade our target price to A$5.50ps (previously A$4.50) and move to ACCUMULATE (was BUY). The upgrade is a function of our updated precious metals price deck.
4Q traffic/toll revenue release + FX + French tax
Atlas Arteria
January 30, 2026
12 month target price reduced 16 cps to $4.58, in response to mild forecast traffic and revenue adjustments, update to spot AUDEUR and AUDUSD, and assumed one year extension of the temporary supplemental tax in France into 2026. HOLD retained, given c.1% total potential return at current prices (including c.8% cash yield based on 40 cps DPS guidance).
2Q26 Result: in line, throughput and underground in focus for 3Q
Meeka Metals
January 30, 2026
MEK delivered its 2Q26 operating result as the Murchison Gold Project continues to ramp up. Gold production increased 28% quarter on quarter to 9.1koz Au and was in-line with MorgansF of 9.3koz Au. Ounce production was underpinned by a mill head grade of 3.3g/t Au, ~10% above MorgansF assumptions; however, this grade outperformance is partially offsetting lower-than-expected throughput. Looking ahead, improvements in mill throughput, driven by underground production remain key to maintaining alignment with PFS forecasts We maintain our BUY rating, price target A$0.33ps (previously A$0.33ps) and update our precious metals price deck.
2Q26 update: Seeds in. Shoots later
Mach7 Technologies
January 30, 2026
M7T posted its 2Q26 cashflow report, reporting a breakeven operating cashflow following marked improvements in cash collection and a streamlined expense position through normalised billing and lower staff costs. ARR remained stable at A$23.0m, while CARR declined to A$26.1m following the known VHA and Trinity headwinds, partially offset by the first Flamingo Architecture customer win and growth from existing clients. Execution momentum strengthened, including positive RSNA-generated leads, improved eUnity KLAS scores, and cost-outs across the organisation. Positive update and M7T appears seeded for good growth opportunities into FY27. No changes to forecasts or target price and our Buy recommendation remains.
Imaging a bigger 2026
Micro-X
January 30, 2026
MX1 posted a solid 2Q26 cash flow report. Highlights included a capital raise which has taken the funding question off the table and receipt of the largest Rover Plus order to date. Key catalysts to focus on include: receipt of additional Rover sales orders; commencement of Head CT human imaging trial; and monetisation of non-core security assets. We have made no changes to our forecasts or valuation. We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation and believe 2026 will be a transformational year for MX1.
2Q26: Outperformance lifts FY26 expectations
Whitehaven Coal
January 29, 2026
WHC delivered a substantial beat versus Visible Alpha consensus and MorgansF in 2Q, with managed ROM production reaching 11 Mt, up 21% on 1Q. Strong 2Q production reduces execution risk in 2H and has positioned WHC to take advantage of current higher hard-coking coal prices. FY26 ROM production and coal sales forecasts have been upgraded to the upper half of guidance. We have made material upgrades to Revenue, EBITDA & NPAT. We rate WHC a HOLD (previously ACCUMULATE) with a target of A$9.75ps (previously A$7.95ps).
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