Economics and markets
12
August
2025
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min read
Why the RBA Will Cut in November, Not September
Michael Knox
Chief Economist and Director of Strategy
Michael Knox, Chief Economist explains how the RBA sets interest rates to achieve its 2.5% inflation target, predicting a cash rate reduction to 3.35% by November when inflation is expected to reach 2.5%, based on a historical average real rate of 0.85%.
30
July
2025
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min read
One Big Beautiful Bill: Averting an Economic Disaster
Michael Knox
Chief Economist and Director of Strategy
Michael Knox, Chief Economist looks at what might have happened in January 2026 if the cuts in corporate tax rates in Trumps first term were not renewed and extended in the One Big Beautiful Bill
30
July
2025
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min read
Forecasting RBA Rate Moves
Michael Knox
Chief Economist and Director of Strategy
On 7 July the AFR published a list of 37 Economists who had answered a poll on when the RBA would next cut rates. 32 of them thought that the RBA would cut on 8 July. Only 5 of them did not believe the RBA would cut, Michael Knox being one of them.
30
July
2025
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min read
Investment Watch: Winter 2025 Outlook
Andrew Tang
Equity Strategist
Investment Watch is a quarterly publication for insights in equity and economic strategy. Recent months have been marked by sharp swings in market sentiment, driven by shifting global trade dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and policy uncertainty.
30
June
2025
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min read
From Suez Blockade to Nuclear Fallout
Michael Knox
Chief Economist and Director of Strategy
From Houthi attacks on Suez Canal shipping to Trump’s Operation Rough Rider and Iran’s nuclear facility strikes, explore how these events shape oil prices.
30
June
2025
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min read
What the Fed Said: Jay Powell Press Conference 18 June 2025
Michael Knox
Chief Economist and Director of Strategy
The US economy is growing strongly at 2.34% in Q2 2025 but is expected to slow to 1.4% in 2025, with falling interest rates and a weaker US dollar likely to boost commodity prices, benefiting Australian markets. Michael Knox discusses.
3
June
2025
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min read
China’s Economy: Why OECD and RBA Misread Global Trade
Michael Knox
Chief Economist and Director of Strategy
Michael Knox, Chief Economist, reveals how the OECD and RBA’s outdated assumptions about global trade fail to account for China’s Marxist-Leninist economic strategies.
30
May
2025
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min read
U.S. Trade and Economic Forecasts for 2025
Michael Knox
Chief Economist and Director of Strategy
Michael Knox outlines the economic outlook for growth and inflation in the U.S., the Euro area, China, India, and Australia, drawing data from the International Monetary Fund, the Congressional Budget Office, European sources, and his own analysis for Australia.
30
May
2025
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min read
Why the US and China Were Forced to Cooperate on Tariffs
Michael Knox
Chief Economist and Director of Strategy
The U.S. and China, through negotiations led by the Chinese Deputy Premier and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, agreed to a 90-day tariff reduction from over 125% to 30% and 10% respectively
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