Economics and markets
30
September
2026
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min read
Why the RBA Isn't Blaming the Middle East for Inflation
Michael Knox (AR: 000259340)
Chief Economist and Director of Strategy
Following the latest RBA meeting, Governor Michelle Bullock reinforced the Bank's focus on excess demand, labour market conditions and productivity, while suggesting current financial conditions are restrictive enough to return inflation to target.
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30
September
2026
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min read
Hours Worked, Growth Slowing: What the Numbers Tell Us
Michael Knox (AR: 000259340)
Chief Economist and Director of Strategy
A simple measure of hours worked can provide valuable insights into GDP growth. We examine why the Australian economy is slowing, what recent labour force data reveals, and the implications for interest rates.
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25
September
2026
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min read
When Will The RBA Hike Rates?
Michael Knox (AR: 000259340)
Chief Economist and Director of Strategy
Michael Knox examines the latest inflation data, comments from the RBA, and what economic models suggest for the future path of Australian interest rates.
18
September
2026
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min read
Fed Surprise: High Growth, Low Rate
Michael Knox (AR: 000259340)
Chief Economist and Director of Strategy
The Fed's latest projections point to solid growth, falling inflation and a rate cycle near its peak. Here's what the US interest rate outlook means for investors.
24
September
2026
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min read
Why US credit spreads move Australian shares
Michael Knox (AR: 000259340)
Chief Economist and Director of Strategy
The Baa spread, a measure of US credit liquidity first described by Friedman and Schwartz, sits at 1.4%. Our model suggests it influences the ASX200 more than Australian earnings or bond yields.
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4
August
2026
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min read
Warsh Gets Tough on Inflation at Jackson Hole
Michael Knox (AR: 000259340)
Chief Economist and Director of Strategy
Kevin Warsh used his Jackson Hole address to flag rising inflation pressure and a private-purchases measure running hotter than headline GDP.
19
August
2026
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min read
Data centres, not jobs are driving US growth
Michael Knox (AR: 000259340)
Chief Economist and Director of Strategy
While US employment has barely moved, GDP grew 2.1% over the year to June. We look at how a surge in data centre investment, spanning equipment and intellectual property, is powering growth and lifting productivity even as job creation stalls.
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14
August
2026
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min read
US and Australia - Interest Rates Set to Rise Further
Michael Knox (AR: 000259340)
Chief Economist and Director of Strategy
Discover why Australian interest rates still have further to climb than the US, and what the rate gap could mean for your borrowing and investments.
3
July
2026
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min read
Fed chair Warsh wants balance sheet cuts, not rate hikes
Michael Knox (AR: 000259340)
Chief Economist and Director of Strategy
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is favouring a quieter tool over rate hikes: letting the Fed's $6.7 trillion balance sheet shrink. Here's what that means for markets and government spending.
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