Economics and markets
12
May
2026
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min read
Public Spending Surge Means Interest Rates Stay High
Michael Knox
Chief Economist and Director of Strategy
The latest RBA outlook shows something extraordinary: rates rise to 4.7% and never come back down through 2028. The driver? A sustained surge in public spending.
12
May
2026
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min read
Private Sector Recession, Public Sector BOOM
Michael Knox
Chief Economist and Director of Strategy
Australia’s March CPI surprised to the upside, but underlying inflation remains stubbornly above target. With public‑sector inflation proving persistent and fuel prices pushing tradables higher, interest rates look set to rise further.
12
April
2026
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min read
Iran Oil Blockade: Why Oil Prices Could Stay High for Months
Michael Knox
Chief Economist and Director of Strategy
The Iran oil blockade is squeezing global energy markets, and Australian investors are feeling it through higher oil prices. Two questions matter: how long will the disruption last, and how far could prices run?
12
April
2026
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min read
Why Oil Prices Will Stay Higher Than Australia Expects
Michael Knox
Chief Economist and Director of Strategy
Inflation and rate hikes are back in focus, raising concerns about Australia’s economic outlook. Strong export prices and sustained energy demand suggest this cycle may play out differently.
10
April
2026
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min read
Why Elevated Oil Prices Levels May Last Longer Than Expected
Michael Knox
Chief Economist and Director of Strategy
Market optimism, low stock levels and Middle East supply risks are shaping a slower path down for oil prices than many expect.
2
April
2026
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min read
Investment Watch: Autumn 2026 Outlook
Andrew Tang
Equity Strategist
Investment Watch is a quarterly publication delivering insights into equity strategy and economic trends. The Autumn 2026 edition explores how investors can position portfolios amid shifting market conditions, unpacking key themes shaping asset allocation, equity markets and sector performance.
20
March
2026
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min read
Four RBA Rate Hikes for 2026? What the Latest Decision Signals
Michael Knox
Chief Economist and Director of Strategy
What the RBA’s latest decision reveals about inflation, capacity pressures and the path for interest rates next year.
13
March
2026
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min read
Trump's 11 Nuclear Reasons for the Iran War
Michael Knox
Chief Economist and Director of Strategy
The breakdown of negotiations between the United States and Iran revealed a single issue that the Trump administration could not ignore. Iran disclosed that it possessed enough 60 per cent enriched uranium to create 11 nuclear weapons.
7
February
2026
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min read
How Electricity Prices Could Push Australia’s Inflation Higher in 2026
Michael Knox
Chief Economist and Director of Strategy
Rising electricity costs may push Australia’s inflation and the cash rate to peak later in 2026 than expected. Learn how price pass‑through shapes CPI.
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