Economics and markets

Porsha Papas, Morgans Financial Adviser, suggests the New Financial Year is the perfect time to re-evaluate and rejuvenate Financial Health.

Investment Watch is a flagship product that brings together our analysts' view of economic and investment strategy themes, sector outlooks and best stock ideas for our clients.

Investing isn't just about numbers on a screen or percentages in a portfolio; it's a deeply personal journey that encompasses dreams, aspirations, and a vision for the future. In this journey, the role of a financial adviser becomes paramount

The saying, "It takes a village to raise a child," reflects the idea that a community's collective efforts are essential for nurturing and supporting the growth of an individual. Similarly, when it comes to women starting businesses, a supportive network can make all the difference.

Seeking financial advice may initially come with a cost, but the long-term benefits can make a significant impact on your financial wellbeing. According to many studies, investors who received advice over four to six years accumulated 60% more assets compared to those who did not seek advice.

Many individuals today are concerned about protecting their children's inheritance in estate planning. This is especially important when the surviving spouse is not the biological parent of the deceased's children, as they may prioritise their own interests over the children's inheritance.

Divorce is an emotionally challenging and life-altering event that can have severe repercussions for all parties involved. Among the most affected are women, who often experience significant financial strains following the dissolution of a marriage. This article aims to explore the effects of divorce on women's financial positions and shed light on the various challenges they encounter.

In today's fast-paced and ever-changing world, women are taking charge of their financial well-being like never before. They understand the importance of financial security and independence, and they want to make educated decisions about their money. However, when it comes to choosing a financial adviser, women are not just looking for someone who can crunch numbers and offer generic advice. They want someone who listens, understands, and addresses their unique financial goals and needs.

Angel investing has traditionally been a male-dominated industry. However, women are starting to make their mark in this field, and they are not only investing in established businesses, but they are also supporting young entrepreneurs.

Sydney, a city brimming with opportunities and dreams, paints a picture of endless possibilities. However, for women like me, beyond Sydney's shimmering façade, the harsh reality of the lack of affordable housing in casts a shadow over their aspirations.

Superannuation can be an unfamiliar, intimidating or even frightening concept for a lot of people. You have probably heard of it, may know that you have it, but may have very little understanding of what superannuation actually is and what options you have.

The Federal Budget was released on Tuesday 14 May 2024, and while a number of key changes were already public knowledge, Australians can now begin to understand how these changes will impact them.

It can be argued that a little bit of inflation is a good thing, it rewards productivity and provides the incentive to save and invest, but perversely high inflation erodes purchasing power without adding value. When entrenched in a feedback loop, inflation ‘degrades’ the capacity of a ‘cash-savings-strategy’ to finance* investment. (*e.g. saving a deposit for a home).

Jim Chalmers talks as if he is delivering a big surplus. Certainly, $9.3 billion sounds like a lot of money. However, last year Australian GDP was an amazingly large $2.6 trillion. The Budget Papers (Table 1.2) show this budget surplus as just a small budget balance of 0.3% of GDP. Of course, a budget balance of 0.3% is better than no balanced budget at all.

One year is a long time in politics. After delivering a budget that straddled the right balance between balance sheet repair and fiscal expansion, the 2024/25 budget was delivered with an eye to next year’s election. Tonight’s announcements centred around cost-of-living relief for all and the well-publicised plan for a “Future Made in Australia” promising over $22bn in spending over the next ten years but also bringing higher deficits over the forecast period.

Investment Watch is a flagship product that brings together our analysts' view of economic and investment strategy themes, sector outlooks and best stock ideas for our clients.

In its latest retail sales release, the ABS implied that Taylor Swift’s seven concerts in Sydney and Melbourne boosted retail sales by 20 basis points in February 2024.

Morgans research analysts re-set their sector views, strategies and best ideas as dynamic forces continue to challenge markets.

Recent months have seen some mixed economic data but we are seeing clearer guidance from central banks.

Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox uses the Chicago Fed National Activity Indicator to model the US economy and explain why there is no incoming US Recession.

Following the Federal Reserve's latest two-day monetary policy meeting, Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox says, "yes the FED rates will fall, but only so far."

Following the RBA's recent decision to hold interest rates, RBA Governor Michelle Bullock said, "where we are now is where we need to be." Chief Economist Michael Knox gives his comments on this saying that the RBA are giving us stability for the near future.

Today, Wednesday the 22nd of February, we are happy to buy Coles Group (ASX:COL), SEEK Limited (ASX:SEK), HUB24 Ltd (ASX:HUB) Monash IVF Group (ASX:MVF), and Peter Warren (ASX:PWR).

We think that comparisons of the potential impacts of COVID-19 with those of the GFC are premature.

February results were slightly better than expected, particularly among large-cap leaders, which should give investors some comfort amidst the ongoing volatility.

Roughly 55% of the ASX300 have now reported results, with only a handful of the ASX50 yet to report.

In its statement on 20 March 2019, the Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve noted "on a 12 month basis, overall inflation has declined, largely as a result of lower energy prices; inflation for items other than food and energy, remains near 2 percent".

Australian banks and high yielders enjoyed a relief rally post the surprise Australian Federal election result, but Australian long bond rates plummeting to record lows (below 1.3%) has been the major driver of Australian equities to near record highs.

The Budget balance is set to improve at a steady rate. This will reassure the rating agencies.

FY17 reporting season kicks off in earnest mid-August and according to the latest IBES consensus earnings estimates, EPS growth for the S&P/ASX200 is forecast at 13% in FY17, slightly down from 13.6% at the end of 1H17.

Equity markets remain at the mercy of abnormal macro-economic conditions such as unconventional central bank interest rate settings and heightened political uncertainty.

Morgans research analysts re-set their sector views, strategies and best ideas as dynamic forces continue to challenge markets.

At her first Board meeting, Michele Bullock stuck to the script.

The US economy has remained resilient supported by robust job gains and consumer spending. The Fed’s aggressive rate hikes will slow the economy and lead to a slowdown into year-end.

Morgans research analysts re-set their sector views, strategies and best ideas as unfolding forces challenge investors.

A new regime of heightened volatility is playing out. The impact of higher interest rates is starting to be felt and counting on broad market moves won’t do now, in our view.

The 2023-24 Budget largely follows those that have gone before, taking a small step toward balance sheet repair but generally favouring fiscal expansion.

Our Asset Allocation update – 2023 Outlook details our recommended 17% exposure to international equities for investors with a Balanced risk profile.

This quarter we take a cautious tilt: overweight cash, underweight developed market (DM) stocks and neutral fixed interest/Australian equities.

Australian corporates again shrugged another reporting test, navigating slowing demand and higher interest rates to post respectable half-year results in February.

Heading into February results, we examine key strategic themes across earnings trends, the cyclicals rotation, yield security, rising AUD impacts and resources.

As attention turns to the February first half reporting season, earnings estimates continue to defy expectations of an imminent slowdown. However, fears that they will materially decelerate in 2H23 will temper sentiment when anticipated headwinds from rising interest rates hits home.

We think investors can take comfort from an overall resilient earnings outlook, and that the conservatism which has been built into market expectations since the pandemic appears to remain in place, providing a margin of safety.

Our best ideas are those that we think offer the highest risk-adjusted returns over a 12-month timeframe supported by a higher-than-average level of confidence. They are our most preferred sector exposures.

Our best ideas are those that we think offer the highest risk-adjusted returns over a 12-month timeframe supported by a higher-than-average level of confidence. They are our most preferred sector exposures.

Our best ideas are those that we think offer the highest risk-adjusted returns over a 12-month timeframe supported by a higher-than-average level of confidence. They are our most preferred sector exposures.

As attention turns to the August reporting season, earnings estimates appear to be on much shakier ground this time around.

Following the latest meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox explains that the RBA minutes don’t say rate cuts are a shoo in at all.

Our model tells us that on this occasion President Trump should be victorious over Biden by a margin of 5.76% of the popular vote.

Following the Federal Reserve's latest meeting, Morgan's Chief Economist, Michael Knox, provides an update on the Summary of Economic Projections, stating that rates will continue to fall until 2027.

Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox's outlook for the world economy in 2024 is that growth will slow; inflation will fall; and money will flow into Stock Markets.

Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox says that core Australian CPI numbers still suggests another RBA rate hike. However, we may not see rates rise until February 2024.

Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox discusses the key drivers for the lack of a US recession in 2023 and explains why Joe Biden's economic policy isn't more popular.

Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox walks us through his model for the US Economy using the Chicago National Activity Indicator, which explains 78% of YoY growth in US GDP.

Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox says that Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year will be shaded by a major program of quantitative tightening.

Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox explains how the different dates of international financial years generate seasonal variation in the Australian and US stock markets.