Economics and markets

In recent days, several people have asked for my updated view on the Federal Reserve and the Fed funds rate, as well as the outlook for the Australian cash rate. I thought I’d walk through our model for the Fed funds rate and explain our approach to the RBA’s cash rate.

The Wall Street Journal of 21 August 2025 carried an article which noted that Ether, a cryptocurrency long overshadowed by Bitcoin has surged in price in August

Uncover the journey of Joseph Ischia from elite athlete to urologist to medtech founder as he leads Akeeko Medical in transforming kidney stone care with a fast and cost saving stent device.

Uncover insights from Jackson Hole: Jay Powell’s rate cut hints, Fed’s soft landing concerns, and dire demographic trends. Analysis by Morgans’ Chief Economist.

Michael Knox, Chief Economist explains how the RBA sets interest rates to achieve its 2.5% inflation target, predicting a cash rate reduction to 3.35% by November when inflation is expected to reach 2.5%, based on a historical average real rate of 0.85%.

Michael Knox, Chief Economist looks at what might have happened in January 2026 if the cuts in corporate tax rates in Trumps first term were not renewed and extended in the One Big Beautiful Bill

On 7 July the AFR published a list of 37 Economists who had answered a poll on when the RBA would next cut rates. 32 of them thought that the RBA would cut on 8 July. Only 5 of them did not believe the RBA would cut, Michael Knox being one of them.

Investment Watch is a quarterly publication for insights in equity and economic strategy. Recent months have been marked by sharp swings in market sentiment, driven by shifting global trade dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and policy uncertainty.

From Houthi attacks on Suez Canal shipping to Trump’s Operation Rough Rider and Iran’s nuclear facility strikes, explore how these events shape oil prices.